630
FXUS62 KRAH 290600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of moisture-starved, reinforcing cold fronts will lead high
pressure from central Canada and the Great Lakes to the Middle
Atlantic and Carolinas this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 825 PM Tuesday...

A broad upper trough over the eastern United States will continue to
drift east overnight. The 00Z Greensboro sounding shows some minimal
saturation between 6 and 12 thousand feet, but otherwise the
sounding is dry. A line of thunderstorms is currently over eastern
North Carolina associated with the surface cold front near the
Atlantic coastline. Meanwhile, a line of showers is currently moving
across south-central Virginia with a drift to the south, but do not
expect that any rainfall should make its way across the state border
into North Carolina. Mainly diurnal cumulus clouds should continue
to fade away over the next couple of hours, and overnight lows will
range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

A shortwave trough now over WI/IA will dig sewd into the OH Valley
tonight and then pivot across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Wed-
Wed night.

At the surface, an Appalachian-lee trough will develop with diurnal
heating Wed and be overtaken by a moisture-starved, reinforcing cold
front that will settle south across the Carolinas Wed night.

Like that which is occurring with the shortwave trough pivoting
across the Middle Atlantic today, diurnally-driven convection will
likely redevelop and accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough
that will pivot across the region Wed, with the greatest coverage
from the NC/VA border nwd. While the forecast will remain a dry one
for now, a slight/small chance of an afternoon shower/storm may be
needed over at least the nrn NC Piedmont. It will otherwise remain
less humid than recent days, and slightly cooler, with highs in the
low-mid 80s and lows mostly in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

The upper level trough will shift east and offshore on Fri, with the
sub-tropical ridge progressing eastward toward the region Fri night,
then continuing slowly eastward through the area Sat/Sat night.
Meanwhile to the west, a s/w trough will move eastward through the
MS Valley Sat/Sat night, then continue eastward across the
Appalachians and through the mid-Atlantic Sun/Sun night. Another s/w
will follow behind it, however the model guidance still varies wrt
timing and track. At the surface, cool high pressure over the OH
Valley Fri, will build slowly esewd into the mid-Atlantic Fri night,
then through the Carolinas Sat/Sat night. The high will move ese to
off the Southeast US coast on Sun, where it should sit through Tue.
A warm front should lift through the area Sun night/Mon, with
southerly return flow will once again advect warm, moist air into
the area through early next week. For now, expect largely dry
weather through Sun, with chances for precipitation returning for
Sun night through Tue. Temperatures should be near to below normal
through Sun, then moderating through early/mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Isolated showers are possible across the
north/northeastern NC between 21-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will build from cntl Canada to
the middle Atlantic and favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat.
As the high shifts offshore, sly flow and increasing moisture will
increase the risk of patchy fog and stratus Sun morning and a chance
of showers/storms Sun afternoon-night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/MWS