830
FXUS61 KRNK 312310
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
710 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the Mid Atlantic region tonight through
Saturday then will move offshore by Sunday. Dry weather with
unseasonably cool temperatures will continue into the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the region for much of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 704 PM EDT Friday...

Not much change overall to the forecast with high level clouds
shifting southeast through the area. Surface dewpoints are
running a little higher across southern portions of the CWA so
bumped them up. Expect fog to form rivers and lakes in the
morning but overall clear. Temperatures could again sink into
the 30s across the higher mountain valleys in the morning.

Previous discussion...

Key message:

   - Tranquil weather continues

Ideal cooling conditions tonight with a clear sky and wind speeds
decoupling around sunset. Only exception will be some thin cirrus
over the North Carolina mountains which is not expected to hamper
the drop in temperature. The dry airmass limits cloud cover and
precipitation on Saturday. Will again have a large diurnal spread
between lows tonight and highs on Saturday. Will trend toward lower
guidance for minimum temperatures tonight, especially in the
typically colder locations. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms make their return early this week.

An ill-defined zone of low pressure and a weak mid-level shortwave
will chase high pressure off of the coast Saturday night. Chances
for precip will rise throughout the day Sunday, with scattered
thunderstorms peppering the area from the mid-afternoon into
the evening.

Synoptic factors contributing to rain chances will be limited
through Monday. Zonal flow aloft and no well defined surface
features in the eastern CONUS points to little support. Monday
afternoon will see diurnal showers in the afternoon as surface
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Rain will be more prevalent in
the mountains west of the Blue Ridge, as orographic effects work to
assist modest instability.

Temperatures will be on the upswing after an abnormally cool
weekend. Highs in the 70s and low 80s Sunday, then into the upper
70s/mid 80s Monday. Overnight temps will settle around the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Late week front will keep rain in the forecast.

Diurnal showers/storms will continue into the mid-week as the
synoptic environment remains unimpressive. Later Wednesday a
deepening trough (potentially a cut off low) will make its way
through the northern Plains. A front will be associated with
this system, and as we remain in the warm sector southerly flow
will keep supplying enough moisture advection off of the Gulf of
Mexico to maintain diurnal showers and storms. The timing for
the passage of the front over southwestern VA remains muddled,
with discrepancies from model to model. When it does enter the
area in the late week; however, we can expect widespread showers
and potentially some stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Friday...

Widespread VFR expected for the valid 24hr TAF period.

Any fog looks to be confined to the rivers or lakes in the
morning but will have to monitor LWB. At this time, keeping fog
out.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions continue through Sunday aside from some potential
fog.

Mainly VFR through the week but showers/storms may bring
periods of sub- VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP