553
FXUS63 KSGF 251715
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1215 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight to Moderate Risk (level 2 to 4) for severe storms late
  tonight into Sunday morning. Damaging winds to 75 mph and
  hail to two inches in diameter are the primary potential
  severe weather hazards. There is also a conditional risk for a
  few tornadoes.

- Slight to enhanced risk (level 2 to 3) for severe storms
  again Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and
  large hail the primary potential severe weather hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a strong upper low over northern
Minnesota and another deepening upper trough along the west
coast. 850mb analysis shows a frontal boundary over southern
Missouri and fairly weak wind fields over the area. Surface
analysis shows the cold front just about to push southeast out
of the area with remaining convection just ahead of the front in
our far southeast CWA. Surface high pressure was movings into
the area and has dropped dew points into the 50s to low 60s
behind the front. Temperatures were ranging from the low 60s to
low 70s.

Rest of the overnight and Saturday: Surface high pressure will
continue to shift east across the area and moisture will then
begin to creep back north into the area during the day Saturday
over the western CWA initially. A dry line will set up over
central KS into central/western OK during the afternoon in
association with a surface low developing in the high plains.
Shortwave energy will begin moving into the plains during the
day. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the
dryline during the afternoon into the evening hours in KS/OK.

Saturday night: Significant severe weather (level 4 of 5) will
likely begin to develop Saturday evening initially to our west
as the low level jet(55-60kts) really begins to ramp up during
the mid to late evening. Helicity values really increase
significantly during this time to support a significant tornado
risk to our west. These initial supercells should evolve into a
thunderstorm complex with a squall line as it moves into our
area during the overnight hours. Significant damaging winds will
be the main risk with wind gusts over 75 mph possible. This
feature should track east across the CWA during the overnight
hours. Some HREF members are showing some rather impressive
updraft helicity values across the area during the overnight and
some embedded tornadoes can`t be ruled out as the squall line
pushes through the CWA.

Sunday: The surface low and associated surface front will push
through on Sunday afternoon and early evening. If enough
atmospheric recovery from the morning MCS can take place, then
additional convection will be possible with the frontal passage.
With recovery, there should be plenty of instability with the
front for some additional strong to severe storms during the
afternoon into evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Upper level wave will push through on Sunday night with a drier
air mass moving into the area. This should clear the convection
to the southeast of the area with temperatures dipping into the
upper 50s to low 60s.

An upper low in Canada will drop southeast into the Great Lakes
region early in the week bringing more of a northwesterly flow
aloft to the area. The best moisture axis should remain over the
deep south into the southern plains with precipitation chances
fairly low for the first half of the work week.

An upper level ridge will begin to push into the area on
Thursday with moisture beginning to increase over the western
CWA by late in the week. Temperatures in the long term period
look to remain seasonal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR flight conditions through this afternoon and evening ahead
of the next approaching system. This system will bring showers
and thunderstorms to the area late tonight into early Sunday
morning. MVFR to IFR flight conditions expected within the
activity. Light southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots through this
evening, becoming more southerly with gusts up to 20 knots
through tonight into Sunday morning. Additional shower and
thunderstorms exist late in the TAF period on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Perez