139
FXUS63 KSGF 232245
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening over southeast
  KS/far southwest MO ahead of strong to severe storms
  overnight.

- After a morning lull, strong to severe storms are again
  possible over the eastern portions of the forecast area.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has
slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated
trailing cold front advecting across the Plains.

Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through
the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from
developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points
have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more
moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on
satellite.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and
sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this
evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the
arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead
of the line and losing their organization.

CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will
be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement
on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching
outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from
evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe
storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward
sunrise.

This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once
once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon
over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its
way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the
atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its
instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then
advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal
an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere.  The veering profile lacks
strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to
strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas.  Similar
to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe
threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday.

Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing
precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall
rates falling on moist soils from recent storms.

A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers
Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with
highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points.  Dry weather will
then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and into early
Friday. A line of thunderstorms will move into during the day on
Friday, especially late morning and afternoon and may need to
include prevailing groups in future updates. A period of MVFR
ceilings looks to arrive by morning as well. Winds will begin to
turn southwesterly by Friday afternoon with a switch to the
northwest at the very end of the TAF period. Low level wind
shear is likely tonight at JLN.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield