Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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294 FXUS63 KSGF 201733 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1233 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in above average temperatures today into tomorrow (mid to upper 80s). - Additional storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across portions of central Missouri (15-30% chances). Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest storms. - Slight (2 of 5) risk to Enhanced (3 of 5) risk for severe weather Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern (15-30% chances) with large hail (15% chance) and a few spin-up tornadoes (2-5% chances) being a lower-end threat. - Potential for another round of severe weather Wednesday toward south-central Missouri (15% risk/confidence). - Unsettled weather may persist through the end of this week and into Memorial Day weekend (daily 30-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Concerning thunderstorms: There are some storms moving into the area along the MO/KS/OK borders, with some lightning within a few of the echoes seen on radar. General radar and satellite trends seem to indicate that moving into a less favorable environment (less instability, decreasing cold pool strength) is leading to the dissipation of most of these storms, especially considering their pulse-y nature. Echoes in Newton County (area of concern #1) are downtrending in strength on radar, with noticeable decline in satellite- observed lightning and updraft strength. A cell along the Barton/Jasper county line (area of concern #2) with a history of brief heavy downpours and noteworthy lightning is also downtrending, with radar-indicated updraft tops becoming lower and lower as it approaches the radar. Echoes are also popping up in eastern Vernon County into Cedar and St. Clair counties (area of concern #3), riding along an isentropic boundary along the edge of the cold pool from the early morning convection. These are also expected to dissipate as they move further east/southeast due to the decreasingly favorable environment. Further to their northwest in east-central Kansas (area of concern #4), satellite shows additional cells underneath overshooting tops popping up every 5 minutes or so, riding southeast along a subtle axis of rising motion resulting from the interactions of a morning mesohigh near Kansas City and a wake low from eastern Kansas. Area of concern #4 is the primary focus moving through the morning hours, though areas of concern 1-3 will continue to be monitored for changes in overall trend. Concerning winds: as the daytime heating mixes out the remnant cold pool from morning convection, pressure gradients will decrease enough that non-convective wind gusts should remain below 25mph. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 An MCS moved north of the region early this morning and another storm system was moving across eastern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas this morning. Most areas east of I-49 and south of Highway 54 only saw isolated showers. As warm air advection continues through today, temperatures and moisture will be on the increase. Afternoon highs will climb into the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the middle 60s. This combination will allow for CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg or greater range providing the fuel for showers and storms. This will play a part in providing for additional scattered showers and storms to develop again this afternoon. This activity is expected to impact portions of central Missouri as an upper level short wave moves through the southwesterly upper level flow and a warm front moves north across the region. Subtle short waves are forecast to move across Missouri allowing for additional thunderstorm potential development this afternoon and evening (15 - 30%) across mainly central Missouri generally north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with hail to quarters in size and damaging winds. Rain should taper off and lift north of the Ozarks by late tonight allowing for a period of dry weather tonight through early Tuesday afternoon. Continued southerly flow will keep bringing moisture and warm air into the Ozarks Tuesday with highs in the middle to upper 80s again making for a warm and muggy day. Convective activity will be on the increase late Tuesday afternoon into the evening as a surface low moves across the plains through the day on its way towards the Great Lakes. This surface low will push a cold front into the region. A 850MB low will also move along the same path allowing a 40-50kt low level jet to move over the region as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The warm air and moisture advection ongoing Tuesday will set the stage for potential severe weather Tuesday evening into the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Dew points are forecast to climb to around 70 degrees which will allow for CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg. Shear (0-6 Bulk shear 40-50 kts) will be ample enough combine with instability and frontal lift to allow for severe storm development. Initial storms may begin as supercells eventually lining out to a squall line. The one thing that may limit severe storm development is the lack of upper level support. This will be watched but if storms develop and can take advantage of all the fuel available hail to the size of golfballs, damaging winds to 60-70mph (the primary concern) and an isolated tornado or two may be possible. The front will move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but is forecast to still be making its way trough the Ozarks into Wednesday afternoon before finally shifting south of the region Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, continued warm air an moisture advection will produce another day of temperatures in the 80s. while behind the front, highs will be in the 70s. As the front continues to make its way south, additional strong to severe storms will be possible, as CAPE 3000+ j/kg is forecast along with good shear (45-55 kts) and upper level jet support. Storms by this point look as though they will move along and parallel to the front which may lead to training storms. If this occurs, flooding will become an issue and WPC has the region in a Slight risk of flooding. The pattern from Thursday through the Memorial Day weekend looks to change little with upper level southwesterly flow. Periods of showers and storms are expected on a daily basis as short wave energy moves through the pattern. the expectations is that no day will be a total washout with periods of dry weather, but showers and storms will likely impact the region. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms to develop each day but timing and location will depend on shortwaves which will be a short term forecast issue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Scattered low cumulus deck prevails over Joplin and continues to build upstream, and this deck is beginning to push into the Springfield area and will linger through the afternoon. Southerly winds on the magnitude of 10ish knots will prevail as well, veering a bit as remnant mesoscale circulations to the north wind down before returning to a southerly direction this evening. Winds will be gusty along KS/OK/AR state lines into the overnight hours, with gusts near 25kts starting around sunset and getting stronger overnight, especially near JLN. Low-level wind shear concerns for a brief period between 09Z-13Z at SGF/JLN as a low-level jet pushes into the Plains. Showers and storms will be possible tonight, with little to no impacts to TAF sites expected as the storms should stay to the N/NE of all sites. Winds will get gusty going through the day Tuesday, with gusts as high as 45kts along the KS/MO border, progressively decreasing to the east but remaining strong (between 25-35kts at TAF sites). As the next disturbance moves into the region, some low-level clouds are expected to develop; flight category degradation is not expected by 18Z Tuesday, though this may be fine tuned in future updates. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Record High Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964 May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 71/1902 May 21: KSGF: 70/1902 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ UPDATE...Camden SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Burchfield