461
FXUS64 KSHV 010620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A few scattered showers have developed this evening across
portions of Southwest Arkansas in response to an upper trough axis
moving across the region. This activity should remain light and is
expected to gradually move east and out of the area shortly after
midnight. With the upper trough still nearby, slight chance PoPs
were maintained across the eastern zones through the early morning
hours. However, PoPs were generally lowered areawide for the
remainder of tonight. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
appears on track.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Atmosphere really struggling to destabilize after early morning
convection has moved nearly through our region this afternoon.
Still monitoring some light to moderate precipitation across our
far SE zones as well as some very light precipitation underneath
the upper low itself across portions of SE OK, SW AR and NE LA.
While our area is still under the influence of weak to moderate
upper forcing and scattered thunderstorm development is still very
possible across our east and northeast half through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours, do not believe this is enough
to justify the Flood Watch that was in effect. Therefore, given
output from a majority of CAMS, not to mention HREF and other
deterministic models, have decided to cancel the Flood Watch with
this forecast package. Concerning the severe thunderstorm risk
for the remainder of the day across our eastern half, thinking is
that this will be more isolated in nature and confined to our far
eastern zones vs all of N LA and most of SW AR and confined to the
early evening hours only. Still weighted pops heavier across our
far northern and eastern zones this evening but keeping slight
chance pops even across the west and southwest as some of the CAMS
are still hinting of some late night convection along a residual
shear axis near the I-20 Corridor late tonight but coverage should
be isolated to widely scattered if we see it at all.

Other than isolated to widely scattered morning convection on Sat,
convection during the day should be tied to mostly diurnal heating
as we should become much more unstable on Saturday than we are
today. Upper forcing will be present due to dirty west northwest
flow aloft present across our mainly the southern half of our
region and thus, pops on Sat are weighted heavier across our
southern zones but still kept pops in the scattered category even
across our northern half given the expected storm coverage.

Concerning temperatures, did come off NBM fcst mins slightly
overnight given the possibility of overnight fog across mainly our
western zones but otherwise should see a slight warming trend
commence on Saturday and that trend will continue into Sunday and
into the long term portion of the forecast as well.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday into at least Monday, our region will continue to be
under the influence of WNW flow aloft and thus, we will continue
to experience at least scattered convection across our region both
days, much of which will be tied to diurnal heating. By Wednesday,
strong upper ridging should begin developing across the Southern
and Central Plains into the Intermountain West and it appears that
this feature will be intruding far enough east into our CWA to
divert higher pops to our north and east. This upstream ridging
is then forecast to migrate eastward, encompassing more of the
Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley which should result in even less
convection coverage for the later half of the work week. Of
course with the influence of upper ridging comes hotter
temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 90s beginning Tue
and continuing through at least Thursday. Given how moist soils
are currently, will need to watch for the possibility of Heat
Advisory criteria being met with Heat Indices near 105 degrees.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, under fair skies the opportunity for
fog has never been better. Light and variable wind and a brief
window for LIFR/IFR 12-15Z improving back to MVFR/VFR after 15Z.
Winds will be W/SW and convection keeping along and south of I-20.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  89  75  90 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  69  88  72  89 /  20  50  20  20
DEQ  65  86  69  87 /  20  40  30  40
TXK  68  88  72  89 /  20  40  20  30
ELD  66  87  70  88 /  20  40  20  30
TYR  71  88  74  90 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  70  88  74  90 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  72  89  74  91 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24