Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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542 FXUS64 KSHV 011930 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Cumulus field continues to increase this afternoon across the Four State Region as diurnally driven sfc instability evolves ahead of expected showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Upper forcing, as a result of a shortwave trough axis, is working east into the Ark-La-Tex and will do so through the evening. The combo of the aforementioned shortwave from the west and outflow response from convection firing along a stalled boundary across the Louisiana coastline will support showers and thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty surrounding the evolution and maturity of what does develop, but radar returns from KSHV, KLCH and KFWS showcase convective initiation ongoing across central and east Texas, along with southern Louisiana, indicating that instability parameters have been conducive for thunderstorm initiation, and possible downstream coverage. At this time, not ruling out the chance for a severe thunderstorm or two, posing the threats of damaging wind and large hail. Given recent events within this very unpredictable NW flow regime, this will be worth monitoring through the late afternoon. Following convection this evening, conditions should fair calmer for the remainder of the night as low temperatures fall into the low 70`s. Elected to include the chance for some patchy fog through sunrise given the close T/Td relations projected following convective probs. Sunday will again follow a very warm theme as highs climb easily into the upper 80`s to near 90 deg F. In terms of PoPs, hi-res CAMs and HREF solutions this afternoon have tossed and turned at the idea of diurnally driven convection and therefore chance PoPs have been added for the CWA. A D2 Marginal Risk is present on the Storm Prediction Center SWO, but only clipping portions of Deep East Texas. That being said though, General Thunder is present everywhere else for pop-up showers and storms. Again, given the pattern in place, can not rule out the chance for a strong to severe storm with what may develop. As a result, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for any changes to the SWO. RK && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it`s place to start, supporting increasing MaxT`s through the upcoming week, with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven instability and the chance for outflow driven convective initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some better coverage of PoPs if trends continue. By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones. How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps climbing any higher than currently advertised. Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to the middle 90`s, higher dew point progression through the week will support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be closely monitored in the coming days. RK && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 mostly low VFR ceilings or VFR conditions will prevail through much of the remainder of the day across our terminal airspace. Followed the HRRR closely when it comes to the introduction of VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups along and south of the I-20 Corridor late this afternoon into the evening hours with the possibility of convection coming northward from SE TX. Time/Height Cross Sections support a return to MVFR or IFR ceilings pre-sunrise across all but the TXK/ELD terminals as well as MVFR VSBYS with IFR ceilings becoming MVFR by late morning on Sunday. Winds will mostly be light and variable today outside of convection, becoming southeasterly late tonight through the first half of Sunday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 90 73 91 / 20 30 0 20 MLU 69 89 72 90 / 20 30 0 20 DEQ 66 88 70 86 / 10 30 10 40 TXK 70 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 30 ELD 66 89 70 89 / 10 30 0 30 TYR 71 89 73 89 / 20 30 10 30 GGG 70 90 72 89 / 20 30 10 30 LFK 71 90 74 90 / 30 40 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...13