Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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647 FXUS64 KSJT 311724 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1224 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do show more convection developing before sunrise across the South Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely". As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat. Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover, and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where the CAMs are a little more aggressive. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Expect VFR conditions this afternoon and much of tonight. Expect stratus to return to much of the area Saturday and have MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals, besides KABI. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight mainly south of the I-20 corridor. A few storms may be severe. Confidence is to low to add thunder to the terminals and will watch radar trends for possible amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 66 86 70 / 50 10 20 30 San Angelo 87 69 92 70 / 30 10 20 30 Junction 91 71 95 73 / 30 10 10 20 Brownwood 81 67 85 70 / 50 20 20 20 Sweetwater 82 67 87 69 / 60 10 30 30 Ozona 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 20 30 Brady 82 69 86 71 / 40 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...21