Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
346 FXUS66 KSTO 250833 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 133 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... One more day of cooler weather is expected today, before temperatures warm back up to near to slightly above normal with areas of minor HeatRisk from Sunday into the week ahead. Onshore flow looks to persist through midweek before dry, northerly flow returns across the late week period. && .DISCUSSION... A few mid level clouds are evident over the northern Sierra early this morning as an upper level trough continues to progress from the Pacific Northwest toward the Intermountain West. This is inducing onshore flow at the surface as well, with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible throughout the Delta and its vicinity this morning. This comparatively moister south to west surface wind will also allow for the introduction of some mid to low level stratus across portions of the Delta and southern and central Sacramento Valley through this morning as well. With the cool and at least partly cloudy start to the morning, afternoon temperature recovery is expected to be limited. As a result, Valley high temperatures look to remain firmly in the 70s, with 50s to 60s at higher elevations. Breezy south to west winds also look to prevail. This onshore flow pattern is expected to continue, but as the upper trough remains on its eastward trajectory, surface winds are expected to slacken overnight into Sunday. With this transition aloft, heights are expected to rise on Sunday as upper level ridging then builds in over the western CONUS. High temperatures by Sunday afternoon look to rapidly jump up to near normal, with Valley high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and 60s to mid 70s at higher elevations. Despite the building ridging aloft, the ridge axis is expected to remain generally displaced eastward over the Intermountain West. Additionally, a closed low digging toward the Pacific Northwest at the same time will work to induce broad troughing across interior NorCal as well. While a slight warming trend is expected, this will effectively limit the upper bound of high temperatures for the early week period. Resultant high temperatures for Memorial Day look to reach the upper 80s to low 90s in the Valley and 70s to low 80s at higher elevations, with similar values anticipated on Tuesday. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Some notable uncertainty is then present in the forecast across the mid to late week period. Latest cluster analysis is leaning toward (~60% of ensemble membership) a solution of ridging aloft building in through the late week period, while still nonzero membership (~40%) indicates a continuation of broad troughing aloft. While the overall differences would be somewhat subtle, the former solution would result in dry northerly surface flow returning and temperatures warming through the end of the week. In contrast, the latter solution would yield a more or less stagnant weather pattern with onshore flow persisting and temperatures remaining slightly above normal. This is all to say that, overall warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to prevail through the extended, but that there is some forecast uncertainty, with a roughly 10 degree variance in current forecast high temperatures. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours, except possible MVFR/IFR in marine stratus from about 11Z-17Z (50-90% probability in the Delta and the Sac Valley south of Chico and north of Stockton). Winds generally less than 10 kts through 23z then delta breeze increases with southwest wind gusts 20-25 kts in the Delta, Sacramento Valley, and west-northwesterly 15-25 kts across the northern San Joaquin Valley. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$