470
FXUS62 KTAE 220826
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a slow warming
trend through this weekend, with a minimum of rain. A slight
moistening of the air mass this weekend could bring a return of
isolated afternoon thunderstorms. By next Tuesday, a cold front
will try to move south through Alabama and Georgia. Proximity of
this front on Tuesday and an increase in jet stream flow will
pose the next shot at strong or perhaps severe thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

A seasonably dry and warm day lies ahead. A 500 mb ridge will
expand from the southwest Gulf across the region, and a surface
ridge axis will prevail from the Carolina coastal waters down into
the northeast Gulf. No rain is expected, given the abundance of
high pressure. Temperatures will trend up a couple degrees today
from Tuesday, with more inland locations reaching the 90-degree
mark. With dewpoints still in the 60s, inland lows tonight will
commonly cool into the upper 60s, with low 70s common near the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Little sensible change in the weather is expected Thursday and
Friday. A strong 500 mb ridge axis will continue in place from the
southwest Gulf across the northern FL Peninsula. Day-to-day
temperature trends may angle slightly upward. Dewpoints will range
from the 65-69 degree range over inland areas, to the muggy low-
mid 70s at the coast. An isolated afternoon shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over inland areas, but coverage
will only be in the 10-20 percent range. Precipitable Water (PW)
values on Thursday and Friday will hover in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch
range, which is still a little too dry to support much in the way
of deep, moist air mass convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Through Monday, 500 mb heights will remain high, but westerly flow
aloft will gradually increase as the 500 mb ridge axis slowly
settles from the northern FL Peninsula to the southern FL
Peninsula. A surface ridge axis will also settle southward,
opening the door to southwest low-level flow. PW values will
slowly moisten to near or slightly above 1.5 inches, which will
start to better support isolated to perhaps scattered coverage of
afternoon convection each day, as the low-level southwest flow
pushes the focusing seabreeze front well inland. Dewpoints will
rise well into the 70s this weekend, with the added mugginess pushing
afternoon heat index values closer to 100 degrees from Saturday
through Monday.

The weather next Tuesday could get more active. A low-amplitude longwave
upper trough over the Intermountain West this weekend will move
east across Great Plains on Monday, then across the Ohio Valley
and Southeast States next Tuesday. This would push a cold front of
some strength southeastward through Alabama and Georgia, providing
a sharper focus for thunderstorm development, with storms trying
to push into our Alabama and Georgia counties, and possibly into
some of our FL counties. With bulk shear running in the 30-40 knot
range, this would present our next risk for strong or perhaps
severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Weak low-level east-southeast flow will prevail over the next 24
hours, topped by dry air and weak northwest flow in the mid-
upper levels.

Satellite imagery and surface obs show patches of IFR stratus
moving west along I-10 near Lake City FL. Through sunrise this
morning, the stratus will likely bring works its way into VLD.
Though odds of getting into TLH and ABY are low, cannot yet rule
out the possibility of a brief bout of IFR stratus around sunrise.

Starting around 2 hours after sunrise, the stratus will rapidly
lift. Daytime thermal lift will support scattered fair weather
cumulus, with afternoon bases in the 040-060 range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Low-level southeast flow will prevail through Thursday morning,
thanks for high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. As high
pressure slowly move south, mostly gentle southerly breezes will
result over the waters on Friday. High pressure will continue
south this weekend, with a turn to southwest this weekend,
possibly increasing to moderate breezes by late in the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Little if any rain is expected through Monday of next week, with
the next decent shot of some wetting rains coming around Tuesday
of next week. By Monday of next week, many locations will be going
on 9 to 10 days with no wetting rain. So the main concern in the
days ahead will be a sustained period of drying.

Otherwise, mostly good dispersion values are expected over inland
districts each afternoon through Friday, and Min RH values will
run in the 40-55 percent range. Daytime temperatures will creep up
each day through this weekend, inland high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s common this weekend.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks...

Patchy fog is possible around sunrise this morning along and east
of the U.S. Highway 319 corridor. On Thursday morning, patchy fog
will favor Panhandle districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

High flows continue to route down many of our rivers, stemming
from heavy rain on the 17th and 18th. Flood waves continue to work
through the Lower Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Saint Marks, and
Withlacoochee Rivers.

On the Choctawhatchee, the flood wave is mainly confined below the
confluence with Holmes Creek. The Apalachicola at Blountstown has
been flirting with flood stage, but a decrease in releases from
Woodruff Dam suggests the flood threat is almost over on the
Apalachicola. On the Ochlockonee, the peak of the flood wave
recently passed Concord and will pass Havana during the next 24
hours. Much of the Withlacoochee is in minor flood, but the peak
of the flood wave is now passing near Quitman.

No hydrologically significant rain is expected through at least
Monday of next week, and possibly longer. Therefore, we will be
left with existing water routing through respective river systems.
Will need to watch the slow-responding Suwannee next week.
Otherwise, no new flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  69  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   86  71  86  72 /  10   0   0  10
Dothan        89  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        88  68  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      90  69  92  68 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    90  68  90  68 /  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  83  72  84  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner