456
FXUS62 KTBW 270545
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Major Hurricane Helene has now made landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region with life-threatening to catastrophic impacts from storm
surge, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain, and tornadoes.

* Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is occurring. Potential
  peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to
  Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka,
  5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7
  feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet
  from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Elevated water levels will remain
  possible through Friday.

* Flooding Rain - Flooding rain threat will continue through this
  weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches and locally higher
  amounts up to 10 inches. Even after Helene pulls away, additional
  rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend.

* Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds are occurring and
  will continue tonight with the highest probabilities along the
  coast.

* Tornadoes - A tornado watch is in effect from Tampa Bay northward.
  Isolated tornadoes remain possible.

Over the course of the day, conditions will gradually improve.
However, this process will not be instantaneous. An onshore wind is
likely to prolong elevated water levels in particular, and will
continue to play a role in weather conditions in the days to come.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

As Helene continues to pull away and a weak boundary sinks south in
its wake, some drying is expected to take place across the Nature
Coast down through Tampa Bay. However, this will be short-lived as
the WSW flow pulls more moisture back into the region by tomorrow.
More typical shower and thunderstorm activity is expected in
response over the weekend, with heavy rainfall remaining a
possibility. Given the WSW flow, coastal areas will be favored in
the early morning through midday, with inland areas seeing the bulk
of the convection in the afternoon.

This pattern looks to be pretty persistent through the first half of
the week. Eventually, some drier air should sneak back in from the
north (assuming the boundary sinks a little farther south). However,
it probably won`t be enough to completely negate shower and storm
activity, and it certainly won`t have much of an effect on
temperatures. More of an ESE flow looks to return near the end of
the week, which will help bring moisture back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

MVFR conditions will continue early this morning as bands of showers
continue to move across the region. Conditions will begin to improve
Friday morning as Helene moves further north away from the area, but
scattered convection will continue to be possible at the southwest
Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Gusty southwest winds at 15
to 25 knots will decrease to around 15 knots Friday morning. Wind
gusts will remain between 30 and 40 knots for the rest of tonight,
especially in the bands of showers, then diminish to around 30 knots
for the rest of Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Life-threatening winds and seas continue as Hurricane Helene moves
inland across the Big Bend Region. As winds begin to subside today,
winds and seas will gradually decline today. However, a persistent
southwest flow may keep winds and seas elevated through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  79  88  78 /  10  10  50  40
FMY  90  80  90  79 /  50  60  80  40
GIF  92  77  91  77 /  20  20  70  30
SRQ  90  79  89  78 /  20  30  60  50
BKV  89  74  90  74 /  10  10  40  30
SPG  90  82  89  81 /  10  20  50  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery/Close