525
FXUS63 KTOP 270844
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Memorial Day (Today) will be dry and Sunny. Highs will reach
  the lower 80s.

- Expect the pleasant weather to last through midweek.

- Thunderstorm chances will be possible again Thursday through
  next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Early this morning an upper level trough was located across the
central and southern MS River valley. Both the the southern and
northern stream H5 jets phased in the base of the MS River
Valley upper trough. An upper trough was digging southeast
across the northern plains

A surface low was located across western WI with a cold front
extending south across eastern IL, then southwest into northern
TX. A broad surface ridge extended across the northern and
central high Plains.

Memorial Day (Today) through Wednesday night:

The northern stream H5 trough will phase with the MS River valley H5
trough across the eastern US, keeping eastern KS under
northwesterly H5 flow. The northern Plains H5 trough will dig
southeast across the Great Lakes States and phase with the mid
MS River Valley H5 trough across the OH River Valley. Eastern KS
will see sunny skies and pleasant temperatures Today (Memorial
day), with afternoon highs reaching the lower 80s.

Clouds wil increase on Tuesday as an H5 perturbation embedded with
the southern stream jet lifts northeast across central TX. Ahead of
this perturbation, a lee surface trough will deepen across eastern
CO, southward across the southern high Plains. Richer gulf
moisture will be advected northwest across west TX into western
KS. Most CAMs show the isentropic lift/WAA associated with the
richer moisture transport remaining west of the CWA, so I don`t
expect any rainfall across our southwest counties. Highs on
Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The southern H5 perturbation will shift east out of TX across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough will move onshore across
the Pacific northwest and shift east into the Great Basin. A
downstream H5 ridge in the northern jet will amplify across the
central and northern high Plains. An upper trough from central
Canada will dig southeast into the Great Lakes and mid Atlantic
States. An area of high pressure across the upper Midwest will
expand southwestward Wednesday and advect drier air parcels
eastward into eastern KS. Highs on Wednesday will continue to
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with an east-southeast surface
wind.

Thursday through Monday:

The northern stream H5 trough will slowly shift east into the the
northern and central Plains into Saturday. The southern and norther
stream H5 jets will phase a bit across the KS and OK. Perturbations
moving east across the Plains combined with richer moisture
transport northward will provide chances for showers and
thunderstorms, 30 to 60 percent, depending on the timing of the
more amplified H5 perturbations. So there remains uncertainly in
when and where the best rain chances will occur through the
period. I don`t expect a washout but there may be some
scattered showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Highs
may cool slightly into the end of the week with more cloud cover
and rain chances. Friday and Saturday high temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 70s. Sunday into Monday a southern stream
H5 ridge will amplify a bit across the southern Plains into KS.
Highs will then warm back into the mid 80s by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds
will remain under 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan