648
FXUS64 KTSA 310220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The shortwave trough responsible for the line of convection this
morning/afternoon continues to slide eastward over the Ozarks and
central AR. Lingering light to moderate rain continues to fall,
mainly across far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Latest runs
of the CAMs show light-moderate precipitation persisting across
portions of northwest AR through much of the evening and overnight
hours. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough
moving out of the southern High Plains. The shortwave trough is
forecast to generate a thunderstorm complex that is expected to
move across southern OK/Red River vicinity overnight tonight and
through the early morning hours tomorrow. However, trends in hi-
res model data now indicate a southern shift in the thunderstorm
complex`s track from previous runs, with the latest HRRR run
suggesting the complex remains south of the Red River as it pushes
southeastward across northeast TX. Despite this occurring (or not
occurring), there should be sufficient lifting, moisture, and
instability to generate at least isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area as the
shortwave trough advances eastward tonight across OK. With PWATs
ranging between 1.5-1.75 inches across all of the area, more
organized showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy to very
heavy rainfall.

With all that said, for the evening forecast update, went ahead
and lowered PoPs area-wide tonight, especially before midnight.
For the sake of forecast consistency and some forecast
uncertainty, kept PoPs at 50-60% after midnight, highest chances
after 3 AM. The absolute best chance of heavy rain (and possibly
marginally severe thunderstorms) through the remainder of the
night and early morning hours will be associated with the
aforementioned thunderstorm complex, if it`s able to remain
along/north of the Red River. This would mostly affect Choctaw and
much of Pushmataha counties in OK. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for Choctaw County through Friday evening.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers and storms are expected to expand in coverage Friday morning,
but will favor highest PoPs across SE OK and NW AR in the morning, and
begin to lower PoPs from W-E in the afternoon as the upper wave continues
pushing to the east. Rain/storm chances will continue to diminish Friday
evening an overnight. Subsidence behind the departing wave should allow
for most if not all of Saturday to remain dry. Will maintain low PoPs
for Sunday as another weak wave passes through. Active pattern to
continue the middle of the next work week. However, a stronger
upper system diving into the midwest states may finally push a
cold front through the area which would give the area a break from
the unsettled pattern we have been locked into.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible
through much of the forecast period, with KMLC and KFSM most
likely to see any significant impacts Friday morning. Ceilings
will lower to MVFR later tonight and remain MVFR, and possibly
even IFR at times, for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  65  76  63 /  50  60  70  30
FSM   84  68  77  67 /  60  70  70  50
MLC   79  65  78  64 /  30  50  80  40
BVO   79  63  75  60 /  50  60  70  30
FYV   82  64  76  62 /  40  80  80  50
BYV   80  63  73  63 /  10  60  80  60
MKO   80  66  75  63 /  60  60  70  50
MIO   82  64  72  62 /  70  80  80  50
F10   77  64  76  62 /  40  50  70  30
HHW   74  65  78  65 /  50  50  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05