006
FXUS64 KTSA 171137
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Compact shortwave located over northwest TX early this morning
will continue moving east-northeast today. At present, some dense
fog has developed across east central and southeast OK, however
increasing cloud cover and lift associated with the approaching
wave should be sufficient to prevent formation of widespread dense
fog. Also, should begin to see isolated to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms develop through the morning. Coverage will
increase though the afternoon and despite weak deep layer flow,
there should be pockets of moderate instability with a few strong
clusters of slow moving storms. With seasonably high PWAT values,
localized amounts of 1-2 inches of rainfall are definitely
possible, and given saturated soil conditions there is some threat
of isolated flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some lingering showers and storms persist into the evening,
mainly across southeast OK and western AR as the upper wave
departs. Some amount of fog is likely again tonight, and potential
for locally dense fog will be there. Otherwise the weekend will be
uneventful weather-wise as shortwave ridging establishes over the
region for a couple of days. Temperatures will rise above normal
with rather humid conditions, however the NBM numbers for high
temps may be a bit high given the saturated soil conditions.
Either way, heat index values in the lower or even mid 90s are
possible both days.

The remainder of the extended forecast becomes a bit more active
as stronger flow aloft sets up over much of the country, with some
degree of longwave troughing in the west. A passing shortwave
will result in a low threat of showers and storms late Sunday nigh
into Monday across far northeast OK, though instability looks
limited at this time. A more substantial wave will push a cold
front into the area, sometime Tuesday most likely, and with the
stronger deep layer flow present, the potential for severe weather
will increase during that time. Confidence beyond that remains
low regarding any details, but some degree of thunderstorm chances
will be maintained into later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Areas of fog will reduce visibilities and ceilings for the first
couple hours of the forecast period, with mainly VFR conditions
prevailing thereafter. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon, with the Arkansas sites most likely to be
impacted. At least patchy fog will be possible again late tonight,
with the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites most
likely to see fog impacts at that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  86  64 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   79  62  85  64 /  70  20  10   0
MLC   79  60  85  64 /  50  20   0   0
BVO   81  57  86  60 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   77  58  82  60 /  60  20  10   0
BYV   76  58  83  60 /  70  20  10   0
MKO   77  60  84  62 /  50  20  10   0
MIO   79  59  85  61 /  40  10  10   0
F10   77  59  84  63 /  40  20   0   0
HHW   79  62  86  64 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05