513
FXUS64 KTSA 252331
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight )
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Severe weather...possibly significant...is expected to spread into
portions of eastern OK this evening. Scattered supercells are
expected to emerge within the expanding warm sector which will
envelope areas from N TX into S KS by early evening. Wind fields
will strengthen this evening with forecast hodographs /
instability composites supportive of intense storms capable of all
severe hazards including strong to potentially violent tornadoes.
Overall coverage of storms crossing this favorable environment
remain uncertain, but the early ongoing storm initiation across W
TX does give credence to the expanding corridor of weakly capped
and strongly unstable air that is poised to spread northward. Two
to three corridors of favored storm tracks have remained somewhat
consistent in short term guidance favoring a zone along the Red
River valley and also nearer the OK/KS border. Regardless the
exact placement, the background environment will support severe
weather through the evening with any storms crossing the forecast
area. Overnight, a transition in storm mode appears likely with
general consensus in an expanding storm complex across SE OK which
may expand southward into the overnight hours raising severe
potential across NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more
east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front
associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE
OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly
unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit
frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be
low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the
boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the
forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and
warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure
builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area
wide.

The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the
southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes
likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from
Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at
least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these
events.

By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more
southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily
thunderstorm chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The main focus this TAF period is to time potential for storm
impacts at the TAF sites this evening and overnight. Per latest
HRRR and WoFS, TEMPO groups were used where probs were greater for
storm impacts near the KS/MO borders. This would include the KBVO,
KXNA and KROG TAF sites. Storm potential was also higher at KMLC
per model data, so a TEMPO was used there also. There may also be
a period of MVFR cigs as well during the overnight. A front will
push thru on Sunday, with conditions at all sites returning to
VFR with gusty winds veering to the W/SW.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  62  87 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   73  91  66  89 /  40  20  20   0
MLC   72  91  64  89 /  40   0  10   0
BVO   67  88  58  86 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   69  87  61  85 /  50  20  10   0
BYV   68  88  61  84 /  50  30  10   0
MKO   71  90  62  85 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   67  86  59  83 /  60  10  10   0
F10   71  91  61  86 /  40   0   0   0
HHW   71  89  65  89 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30