127
FXUS65 KTWC 292031
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as the calendar turns from May to June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor imagery shows minor troughing over the
Great Basin region with a small ridge to the east over New Mexico.
This will bring some afternoon breezes and keeping temperatures
around 100 degrees for Tucson and the lower desert elevations
today. The pattern repeats for the rest of the weekend of high
pressure building with some minor troughs to keep reduce the
thickness values down slightly. Overall, temperatures will be run
4 to 6 degrees above normal through the end of the month and the
start of June. It is a great time to get into the proper habits
of heat mitigation efforts.

By the end of the weekend and into the new week, the ensembles
show a ridge building to the east with a low pressure center off
the Baja California coast. This pattern can bring in some
moisture into the region which will mainly result in high base
and mainly dry storms by the middle to late week timeframe. The
moisture creeping into area will first start in the eastern part
of the state where the mountains will have the better chances for
the any storm development. There is still uncertainty on how the
ridge and low pressure will evolve for the first few days of the
week. This will help determine how much and where the moisture
may go. With any case, temperatures will run several degrees
above normal for the start of June as that high pressure starts to
build across the western states. Hot temperatures to come late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 25k ft AGL through the forecast period. SWLY/WLY
SFC wind at 11-17 kts and gusts to 18-27 kts through 30/03Z, with
the strongest SFC wind southeast of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK
and KDUG. Between 30/03z and 30/18Z, SFC winds less than 10 kts
and variable in direction. After, WLY/NWLY SFC winds at 10-15 kts
and gusts up to 20 kts through the rest of the forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal
through the upcoming weekend. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in
the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7
days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most
locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns this
week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface
heating. The strongest sustained 20-foot winds will generally be
across portions of Cochise County, where wind speeds will be in the
15-20 mph range, with some gusts to around 30 mph for a couple of
hours during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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