-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
419
FXUS64 KBRO 260830
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
330 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Key Messages:

* Excessive, Dangerous, Record-Breaking Heat Likely again today
* Triple digit highs expected for Brownsville, Harlingen, and
  McAllen today; Heat Indices will range between 115-124 degrees
* Extreme risk of heat related impacts to anyone spending time
  outdoors and not taking the necessary precautions
* High Risk for Rip Currents expected through Monday

A mid to upper-level ridge anchored over Mexico will continue to
provide strong subsidence across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley through the period. Dangerous heat will persist through
Memorial Day with triple-digit temperatures for most inland
locations. Due to steady southeast surface flow, dew points climbing
into the 70s, will support elevated heat index values, which will
encroach eastward. Temperatures and dew points are expected to
increase few degrees today and tomorrow as subsidence strengthens.

Mid-level dry air should mix down this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon, so made some slight adjustments to the temperature and
dewpoint grids. These changes should keep daytime high temperatures
and dewpoints a little more realistic and more inline of what has
been observed the past two days. This is also close to the latest
HREF 2m apparent temperature probabilities.

Persistence is the best forecast with Excessive Heat Warnings and
overnight Heat Advisories in place for today and likely continuing
tonight and repeating Monday. To avoid any confusion will not issue
additional heat advisories or warnings and let today`s hazards run
their course before reissuing for tonight and Monday.

Some convection may develop over the higher terrain of
Mexico/Sierra Madre and drift towards the Rio Grande Plains Monday
afternoon as a weak shortwave traverses around the periphery of
the 500 mb. The Storm Prediction Center /SPC/ has most of Deep
South Texas in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday.

The persistence moderate southeast winds over the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to drive a moderate swells towards the Lower Texas
Coast through the period. Therefore, a continuation of a High Rip
Current Risk is expected through Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures continue through next weekend.
- Medium probability (40-70%) of Heat Advisories everyday.

Latest model trends continue to indicate the center of the
subtropical ridge getting shunted slightly to the south- southwest
as a series of shortwaves track west to east across the Southern
Plains late Tuesday-Friday. This should allow for a minor lowering
of daytime temperatures but don`t be fooled, temperatures and
heat indices will remain well above normal and day to day heat
advisories have a medium (40-70%) probability of occurring each
afternoon. The Experimental NWS Heat Risk Index continues to show
Major to Extreme (4-5 out of 5) risk of heat-related impacts
providing increase confidence in the forecast. Overall, high
temperatures to range from near 90 at the local beaches to 105
inland west. Overnight lows do not show any significant downward
trend with a range of 76-82 degrees.

Rain chances  continue to be limited to far western counties Monday
and Tuesday evenings as the weakening ridge and the mid-level
disturbances may trigger isolated Sierra Madre Convection. Model
consensus remains consistent with only 10-20 percent pops over the
the western Ranchlands including portions of Starr County and < 10%
everywhere else. Moisture remains shallow with exception to the
Monday and Tuesday evening out west where some depth to the
moisture profile is the indicator for the isolated convection
chances.

A more pronounced upper trough moving through the northern and
Central Plains next weekend shows a front moving into Central Texas
which may aid in trending down the temperatures another notch while
providing a slighlty better chance of rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings and moderate southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas early this morning. Widespread MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop overnight. Low cloud decks then
should decrease after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning to
all RGV aerodromes by mid-morning. Some intermittent visibility
reductions are possible through the period, as haze/mist could
briefly drop visibility to 5-6 miles, though confidence is too low
to include in the TAF. Light to moderate winds overnight will
increase and become gusty later this morning into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

(Today through Monday): An enhanced pressure gradient along
the Lower Texas coast will maintain moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas. Expect winds to approach but remain just
shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria of 20 knots on the Laguna
Madre during the day shifting over the Gulf waters overnight.

(Monday night through Saturday): A persistent light to moderate
southeast flow and moderate sea regime is indicated for Monday
night through next weekend. Broad surface ridging over the Gulf
waters and modest low pressure troughing extending from the NE
Mexico through the Southern plains to maintain the modest onshore
flow and steady state wave profile. Not anticipating any
significant rainfall but can not rule out a few streamer showers
leading into next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Record Highs for today May 26, 2024

Brownsville 98 in 1928 (Forecast high 99)
Harlingen 100 in 1924 (Forecast high 101)
McAllen 102 in 2017 (Forecast high 104)

Record Highs for Monday May 27, 2024

Brownsville 99 in 1973 (Forecast high 100)
Harlingen 100 in 2018 (Forecast high 101) *A break in the climate records
McAllen 107 in 1973 (Forecast high 104)
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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BROWNSVILLE             99  82  98  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN              101  80 100  78 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN                104  82 104  81 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        108  81 106  80 /   0  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  88  83 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     96  81  95  80 /   0   0   0  10
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&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...63-KC