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259
FXUS62 KCAE 280019
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
819 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening
until a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable
temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front
through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper
Mississippi Valley.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The weather across the forecast area is tranquil at this hour.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this
evening until a cold front moves through the region. Rain
chances will quickly end once the boundary passes through
tonight with a wind shift and clearing skies. Lows tonight will
be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will be over the eastern US through the
short term with high pressure and drier air building in behind
the front. By late afternoon pwat values are expected to fall
under 1 inch and mid level lapse rates will be 6.0 C/Km or less.
Surface and low level winds will also be westerly to
northwesterly which will lend some downsloping to the drying as
well. Little change is expected on Wednesday as high pressure
continues to build into the area from the northwest and with the
northerly flow continuing slightly cooler air will also persist
over the region. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and on Wednesday the mid 80s to around 90.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night and
the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highly amplified upper level pattern will be slow to change through
Friday then become more zonal for the weekend. The upper level
trough will gradually dig into the eastern US Thursday and early
Friday with the axis finally swinging offshore early Friday
afternoon. By Saturday the upper ridge which had been building into
the Great Lakes region will begin to get suppressed by troughing
moving into it resulting in more zonal flow by Sunday. At the
surface high pressure will be ridging into the forecast area
Thursday with the center overtaking the mid Atlantic States on
Saturday then sliding eastward into the Atlantic Basin Sunday. This
will keep drier air over the region through Friday with moisture
slowly returning to the region over the weekend with slight chance
of convection in the CSRA Saturday and the entire forecast area
Sunday. With the trough over the eastern US temperatures will be
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly a vfr forecast as a cold front pushes through the region
tonight. Main convective activity should remain mostly south of
the forecast area, with only an isolated shower or storm
possible the next few hours at ags/dnl/ogb. Confidence not
high enough to even place in tafs at this time though. In
general, taf locations should only see some cirrus from
convection south of the area through tonight. Skies clear out by
Tuesday morning. Winds remaining mostly out of the west
overnight, then turning more northwesterly for Tuesday behind
the front. Low chance of some patchy fog early overnight before
drier can mix into the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...