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973
FXUS61 KLWX 020759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide offshore early today. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return today into Monday as a quick moving
low pressure system passes through the region. Dry conditions
briefly return with high pressure Tuesday before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase with a series of fronts mid to
late next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low-level moisture will continue to build in across the Mid-
Atlantic today as a result of departing high pressure and an
incoming weak area of low pressure. Light returns on radar have
been observed this morning across the Allegheny Front. These
showers will continue to progress further east throughout the
day. Models have been a bit slower to the timing of the showers
compared to what is being realized so far so have increased PoPs
a bit quicker to account for this instance.

For today, expect off and on showers and an isolated
thunderstorm to be possible, especially along and west of the
Blue Ridge Mountains. For any thunderstorms, severity should
remain tame due to weak instability parameters to work with
(weak flow, non-steep lapse rates). Afternoon highs will climb
into the upper 70s to low 80s for most lower elevations and
upper 60s for the mountains. Showers may linger into the
overnight hours with lows dropping down into the upper 50s to
mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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By Monday, we`ll continue to hold chances for showers and an
isolated thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon. The coverage
and intensity continues to look fairly tame given the mesoscale
setup. Afternoon highs will increase as a result of
southwesterly flow into the low to mid 80s for most areas aside
from the mountains where mid 70s will be more common. Breaks in
the clouds will build in throughout Monday night with lows
dipping down into the upper 50s in the mountains to low to mid
60s further east towards the waters.

Brief upper ridging will alleviate PoPs on Tuesday with only a
20 to 30 percent chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s for most
areas with increasing cloud coverage as a result of incoming
onshore flow to the area. Low end PoPs continue through the
overnight hours with lows dropping down into the low to mid
60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Guidance has come into better agreement on Wednesday as the
ECMWF has trended more progressive, bringing warm frontal precip
to the region by Wednesday afternoon. The cold front swings
through Thursday into Friday with another round of showers and
t-storms. Guidance remains inconsistent on if the upper trough
associated with the frontal system cuts off as it moves into the
Great Lakes with the ECMWF lagging behind the GFS and Canadian
with this development. As a result, the 12z Euro solution is
drier behind the cold front on Friday, while the GFS/CMC have
some lingering shower activity Friday and into the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR conditions are expected into the beginning of the
work week. For today, light variable winds will increase a bit
with the departing area of high pressure. Cannot rule out a
brief ceiling restriction with any shower or isolated
thunderstorm that crosses the terminals. VFR conditions likely
continue into Tuesday with weak upper ridging nearby building in
across the area. Nonetheless, cannot completely rule out a stray
shower or isolated thunderstorm.

Shower and thunderstorms are possible both Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the afternoon and evening, which could bring
restrictions to the terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the lower waters of
the central Chesapeake Bay through early this morning. Cannot
completely rule out the need for a Special Marine Warning for
any strong storms that cross the waters later today but the
magnitude and intensity should be below severe thunderstorm
warning criteria.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms moving over the waters during the afternoon and
evening hours could bring stronger gusts especially on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Special Marine Warnings cannot be ruled out
during this period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Anamolies will continue to rise over the next few days with
increasing onshore flow allowing some of the more sensitive
sites to be around action stage with an outside chance for minor
tidal flooding.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
Anz533- 543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM/EST
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADM/CAS
MARINE...ADM/CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADM