Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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227 FXUS65 KABQ 251122 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Temperatures will warm a couple to a few degrees more in western and central New Mexico today, but eastern New Mexico will stay close to, if not a couple degrees below what was observed yesterday, thanks to a weak front. Dry conditions will prevail today with generally light winds expected. Temperatures will rise a few degrees more into Thursday with readings reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Only small day-to-day temperature changes are then expected Friday into the weekend. A few weak showers and thunderstorms will struggle to develop over the mountains and nearby highlands each afternoon Friday through the weekend and into early next week. Little, if any, rainfall is expected with this activity, but rather gusty winds from evaporating rainfall will be more likely. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 It will be another warm and tranquil day in the Land of Enchantment. The ~592dam ridge will center itself over north-central New Mexico today, keeping it dry with light winds. 500mb heights are above the 90th percentile for this time of year so high temps will be as well. Temps warm a couple more degrees on Thursday as the center of the ridge shifts southward and 500mb heights rise above the 95th percentile. A few locations in western and central NM such as Gallup and Farmington could flirt with record highs, while locations in the east remain several degrees from record territory. Other than being a little toasty, it should be a nice day with clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The upper high will stay over NM and the Four Corners states Friday through the weekend, exhibiting slow evolution and small orientation changes through this time. Pressure heights will tend to stay in a 589-592 decameter range through this time frame. This will keep daytime temperatures above average by 5 to 10 degrees in western and central NM. Meanwhile eastern zones will hover near to about 5 degrees above normal due to a weak easterly wind shift brought on by subtle surface pressure rises over the southern plains as the parent upper low works over the southeastern states. A weak shortwave trough is depicted by forecast models sliding southward out of CO on Friday, potentially shoving faint moisture increases in the mid troposphere. This could lead to an uptick in high-based cumulus which may develop into virga showers over the mountains and highlands and perhaps a dry storm or two over the Sangre de Cristos Friday afternoon. Confidence in measurable rainfall is low, as forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles with large opportunities for evaporative cooling beneath the high cloud bases. Growing DCAPE and hence gusty downdraft winds would likely be more impactful than the sprinkles or attendant virga that would be an afternoon and evening ritual Friday through the weekend. The upper high wobbles northeast of the Four Corners on Monday, and the operational GFS depicts the high strengthening quite a bit with central heights rising toward 595 decameters. Other deterministic model members (and of course ensembles) are not as zealous, but all keep the upper high sprawling in a similar location into Tuesday. The potential element of change could come via a backdoor front that slides down the plains and into eastern and eventually western NM Monday. MOS guidance carries Tuesday`s daytime temperature readings down 3 to 8 degrees over the entirety of the forecast area, but this seems hard to buy into if the upper high remains in its advertised location with height anomalies nearly 6 to 10 decameters above climatology. Other than this potential temperature change, the forecast will remain mostly dry early next week with the aforementioned mid level moisture potentially getting eroded and reduced. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. With a ridge shifting overhead, light winds and clear skies will persist around the area today and tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. Ridging centers itself over the state today, keeping winds light and temperatures above seasonal averages. Another backdoor front enters from the east Friday, with little sensible weather change other than an easterly breeze and slightly cooler temps across eastern and central areas. Isolated, mostly dry, showers and storms will favor the high terrain Friday through the weekend. Wetting rains are unlikely, but gusty outflow winds over 30kts could accompany showers and storms. Another, potentially stronger, backdoor front may arrive on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 54 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 81 40 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 49 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 84 46 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 81 50 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 83 45 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 82 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 81 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 80 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 86 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 57 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 75 44 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 78 55 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 77 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 67 43 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 72 29 76 27 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 79 43 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 76 45 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 85 48 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 79 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 61 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 56 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 53 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 88 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 87 53 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 49 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 56 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 87 52 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 84 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 86 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 56 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 82 47 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 41 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 77 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 81 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 81 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 85 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 76 48 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 80 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 81 45 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 45 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 77 49 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 51 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 51 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 83 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 84 54 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 53 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 50 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16