194
FZAK80 PAFC 242232
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
232 PM AKDT Friday 24 May 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 29 May 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSIS...An eastern Bering Sea low will move eastward, crossing
the Alaska Peninsula on late Friday then sit in the Gulf of Alaska
through early next week. A front stretches across the southern
Bering Sea on Monday. The associated low will move across the Chain
to the east through Wednesday.

The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to Cape Mendenhall
near Saint Matthew Island to 60 45N 178 13W and continues in
Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Quinhagak to Cape Mendenhall to near St. Matthew Island to 290
nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice
edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will be out of the northeast through
Monday. Pack ice will generally remain consolidated against the
shorefast ice with little change. There is a chance that a weak
system developing will reverse the winds to be from the west on
Wednesday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will remain out of the northeast through
Monday. Sea ice will drift southwest through the forecast period,
though south of Point Hope winds will be light and variable so sea
ice will move with tides and currents. The polynya off the Cape
Lisburne to Point Barrow coast is expected to expand southwestward
through the forecast period.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-
PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-
PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. Light northerly winds will persist through the period.
Overall remaining ice will slowly move southward around 5 nm/day,
with tides and currents acting equally on the ice. The ice edge
itself will remain relatively stationary as low concentration along
the edge melts. The remaining pack ice will drift southward, as well
as thinning and reducing in concentration. Winds will become light
and variable Monday through Wednesday which will lead to tides and
currents controlling ice motion.

Shorefast ice for the Kuskokwim Delta has degraded and will likely
break off and melt quickly over the next week.

For the Yukon Delta, a large section of ice west of Stebbins has
broke off as well as some larger chunks of ice away from the edge of
the middle Yukon River Delta. No signs of near shore melt are
occuring yet.  Additional melting and destabilization will occur
through the next week.

&&
Lawson