934
FXUS64 KAMA 262326
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

- Above average temperatures and dry weather continues through the
  weekend. Highs in the 90s possible next Monday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures briefly cool down Tuesday with a front, dropping
  highs 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Our warm end to september continues through tomorrow, with highs
in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees forecast. Winds will gradually
shift to the north-northeast tomorrow as influence from Helene
shifts the upper level flow. Despite temporary displacement of the
ridge, this will have little to no impact on our weather, as dry
conditions continue to prevail. Overnight lows will be in the 50s,
and clear skies should prevail heading into the weekend.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

As Helene dissipates and is ingested by an upper level low over
the Ohio River Valley this weekend, it will gradually be swept
away towards the northeast, allowing high pressure to regain its
hold over the region. This synoptic pattern should hold steady
into next week and will continue to support the persistence of
warm and dry weather. Monday and Wednesday look to be the hottest
days ahead, when high pressure and warming 850mb temperatures will
be at their peak. Probabilities suggest most of the CWA will have
a medium to high chance (40-90%) to exceed 90 degrees on Monday,
with a low to medium chance (20-60%) on Wednesday.

The warmer stretch will be briefly broken up Tuesday when a weak
trough allows a cool front to drop south across the Panhandles.
Northerly winds and resulting CAA will drop afternoon highs back
to near or below average temperatures. Northern portions of the
Panhandles will feel the biggest difference with highs in the 70s,
while the southern Panhandles merely drop a few degrees in the
80s. Current NBM forecast winds behind the front aren`t very
impressive for most of the area (only 10-20 mph), which is
reasonable given the fact this front shouldn`t be particularly
strong. But, would not be surprised to see slightly higher gusts
of 20-30 mph at times associated with the frontal passage across
the northwest Panhandles on Tuesday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY,
KDHT, and KAMA through late Friday afternoon.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  88  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  53  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              53  86  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  56  92  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              54  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  54  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 51  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  50  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                54  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   55  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                55  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              55  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...02