Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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315 FXUS63 KAPX 240304 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1104 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns Tuesday. - Rain-free weather and above average temperatures expected through the second half of this week into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High clouds on the increase...running well ahead of weak low pressure moving slowly northeast across eastern Missouri. Although top-down saturation will continue ahead of this low, latest trends support any rain holding off until Tuesday. One exception to this will be across parts of northeast lower Michigan, where light east flow will bring some lake enhanced moisture inland. Moisture profiles there look just deep enough to perhaps kick off some early morning drizzle or very light showers. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Surface high pressure still largely in control of our weather...centered to our northeast over Ontario...as subtle shortwave ridging slides through. PV max over the Mid MS Valley continues to lift northeastward this afternoon...with attendant cloud shield overspreading southern Lower south of approx M-20 as of 18z. Next PV maximum still well west of us over the Northern Plains. Little to no cu left this afternoon as we`ve mixed out enough to tap into dry layer aloft. Afternoon dewpoints down into the 40s signaling another potentially chilly night where radiational cooling can take place. Winds still north to northeast...though a weak enough pressure gradient today that Lake Michigan lake breeze is trying to form toward MBL. Expecting cloud shield to continue to lift northeastward through the afternoon/evening...though it may struggle as it interacts with the dry air in place attm. Upstream energy expected to dig into the Mid MS Valley tonight into Tuesday with the aid of 120+kt upper jet snaking its way through the flow. Current expectation is for a low pressure to develop along what remains of BCZ through the OH Valley...and lift northeastward into southeast Lower MI tonight into Tuesday...with attendant rain chances trying to spread into the area late tonight. In the meantime...will expect another chilly night with lows in the low to mid 40s in the colder locales. Potential for fog development again tonight...and a dreary day Tuesday, especially the further south you go. Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain returns Tuesday... Temps aloft still cool enough to maintain a meager lake response...and suspect we`ll ultimately look for some lake- induced/enhanced showers as moisture overspreads the area later tonight into Tuesday morning. Primary focus for this will be across NE Lower, downwind of Lake Huron...though not impossible a smidgen could get into the EUP with enough of a southeasterly component to the flow. Think seeder-feeder processes could enhance rainfall totals over this way (NE Lower/Saginaw Bay region)...though not expecting a ton of rainfall overall, particularly noting trends starting to keep the deepest moisture just south and east of our area as the low lifts northeastward Tuesday. Could again be looking at potential for some kind of mesoscale-driven heavier precip band, somewhat similar to yesterday, with some signals for a bit of a N-S band to develop over Lake Michigan later in the day as the trough axis aloft approaches. If this idea verifies...could be looking at the bullseyes for better precip on either coast with less certainty over the interior. Additionally...south and east trend with the moisture does have me concerned that the northwest portions of the CWA may not receive much at all, particularly if we end up with a sharp northern/western edge to the precip shield (as pwat guidance suggests). A few embedded rumbles of thunder possible with this Tuesday afternoon, particularly toward Saginaw Bay closer to the surface low itself...and perhaps where lake-induced energy could give things a bit of a boost...but nothing dramatic expected by any means, given the warm sector remaining to our southeast...and lack of better flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Southern stream shortwave/jet max will continue to lift across the southern Great Lakes into Wednesday as amplified troughing digs sharply down the Midwest toward the Gulf Coast. Said trough looks to get cut off from the main flow and pivot near the lower Mississippi Valley through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile, ridging is expected to encompass the Great Lakes through the weekend into early next week. One complicating factor will be the impact soon-to- be/expected Hurricane Helene will have on the pattern, and eventual forecast for the Great Lakes later this weekend. Forecast Details: Rain-free weather and above average temperatures -- Light rain showers are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period, and will begin to work northeast of the area late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This aside, rain-free weather is expected across northern Michigan through the end of the week and into this weekend. Aforementioned ridging will keep surface high pressure in place, and with the cut-off low well to our south, little appreciable forcing and lack of frontal passages will keep a similar airmass in place for a several day stretch -- potentially through the remainder of the forecast period. Thus, rain-free weather and highs in the 70s are anticipated across northern Michigan through at least Saturday. These highs combined with overnight temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s for most will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than average for late September. Rain chances may begin to work in late in the weekend/early next week depending on the track of expected Hurricane Helene, but confidence is currently low in any additional rainfall across the area after Wednesday morning through the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will give way to northwest expanding low clouds early this morning through this evening. Trends supporting MVFR to IFR cigs to initially impact KAPN early this morning, expanding across the rest of the area through today and this evening. Expecting to see some very light showers and drizzle at times on today and this evening, likely resulting in some vis restrictions as well. Light winds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...MSB