Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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370 FXUS61 KBGM 241739 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 139 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected into the early morning. While much of the area will become drier by this afternoon, additional disturbances will support shower chances tonight through Thursday. The pattern will change in time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Only minor changes to the coverage of showers and drizzle this morning with the mid-morning and noontime updates. Previous discussion below. 420 AM Update... Cloudy skies prevail across the area this morning, with plenty of low stratus, especially across the Southern Tier into NEPA. Some light radar returns have been increasing over the past hour or so, likely just spotty drizzle which will continue off and on through about mid morning. Otherwise, while we remain in active southwesterly flow aloft, we`ll spend most of the day between upper level disturbances, and with the lack of forcing, showers will be very sparse. Rain chances will be marginally higher across western sections such as the Finger Lakes, as high pressure over New England keeps trying to filter drier air at the low levels into the eastern reaches of the CWA. Rain showers will increase again tonight as another shortwave trough rolls through the area, and a 100-knot jet streak noses into western NY. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out either. Wednesday will likely be mostly dry to start, but with additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cropping up in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... A warm front looks to slowly move through the region Wednesday night through Thursday which will help trigger scattered showers. While bulk shear values are sufficient, there appears to be little in the way of instability during this time, so any thunderstorm activity is expected to be pretty isolated. Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday seem to be generally 0.50 of an inch or less looking at both the operational and ensemble guidance members, but the 00Z Euro does look to be a little more robust in comparison to the previous 12Z run with a more broad 0.50-0.75 of an inch or so over CNY with localized higher amounts near and north of the NYS Thruway. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s and low 60s. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the upper 60s and 70s, with the Wyoming Valley climbing into the upper 70s. Showers are expected to taper off during the evening hours Thursday night with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 400 AM Update... Surface high pressure building in from the north out of Canada is expected to promote largely dry conditions over the region Friday through Monday. A cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi River Valley is expected to weaken into an open wave of low pressure and be drawn northward as an upper trough moves into the northern Great Lakes region. This would lead to a chance of showers as early as Tuesday next week. One thing that does bear watching in the longer range is the Canadian has the cutoff low stronger and it shifting north over the Ohio Valley and eventually toward our area over the weekend. Enough moisture would be drawn up from the south that could result in spotty showers Saturday-Monday. For now, NBM PoPs were capped at 20% during this time as most model solutions still favor dry conditions. Seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s through early next week and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR ceilings should largely remain in place for the rest of the afternoon. It is possible and mentioned through TEMPOS for the ceilings to lift to VFR for brief intervals. However, ceilings should generally start to lower a bit in the MVFR range. Some IFR ceilings toward sunrise are possible at KELM,KAVP,KITH and KBGM. These ceilings should only be slow to lift again on Wednesday. A few rounds of showers are also expected with the highest chances for visibility restrictions toward sunrise and then till the end of the TAF period. A few southeast wind gusts may approach 20 knots from time to time as well. Weak speed LLWS is possible as well for a time overnight but some uncertainity is still present and it was not included with the updated TAFS. A brief rumble of thunder can not be ruled out with the showers as well. .Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with showers passing through the region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday. Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...MWG