925
FXUS63 KBIS 270540
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  the weekend, with breezy winds possibly returning on Sunday
  into early next week.

- Temperatures turn cooler early to mid next week. Low
  temperatures could dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s, with
  highs forecast in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Clear skies remain across the forecast area. Low temperatures
tonight are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Little
updates needed at this time.


UPDATE
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Frontal boundary continues to progress to the east/southeast and
is now situated from between Carrington and Jamestown
southwestward to near Linton. In the wake of the front, a few
breezy areas remain, but overall wind speeds have diminished,
and should continue to as we go through the overnight hours.


UPDATE
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Frontal boundary now stretches from near Bottineau southward
just to the east of Bismarck. Before the front came through,
Bismarck reached 96 degrees which tied the record from 1936.
Winds continue to be gusty behind the front, but this should
ease as we go through the evening, while the front continues to
progress east. As for the forecast, only change was to bump
winds up a bit behind the progressing front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

An upper level ridge continues to move over Minnesota as an
upper level trough digs across southern Saskatchewan. This has
placed the low level thermal ridge across southwestern and south
central North Dakota this afternoon. Thus, temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the aforementioned
areas. The remainder of the state sits in the 80s. Dickinson
has broken their previous record high temperature of 92 degrees
set in 1963 with a current high temperature of 93 degrees, which
could be higher by the end of the day. A surface pressure
trough associated with a cold front continues to move across the
western half of the state. This will bring a wind shift and
slightly cooler temperatures as it passes west to east. Winds
ahead of the front remain around 25 to 30 kts as a strong north
south orientated pressure gradient reinforces gusty winds
across the James River Valley. The northwest will also see windy
post frontal winds this afternoon. Near critical fire weather
conditions are being observed across portions of western and
south central North Dakota this afternoon, read the fire weather
discussion for more information.

Surface high pressure will move into the region by early
tomorrow morning resulting in cooler temperatures. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 40s tonight,
around ten degrees cooler then last night. The main flow will
switch to zonal as a ridge builds out west. Temperatures are
forecast to cool a few degrees tomorrow but remain above normal
for this time of year. High temperatures are forecast to sit in
the lower 70s in the northeast to the mid 80s in the southwest.

Temperatures will begin to trend upward this weekend again as
the upper level ridge in the west builds. Temperatures will
climb into the 80s to lower 90s in the southwest through Sunday.
Dry conditions will continue through the period with the warmer
temperatures. Fire weather conditions may return to the region
Sunday as winds are forecast to pick across the area with dry
conditions. Sunday night an upper level trough will progress
through the Northern Plains bringing forth a cold front. Slight
chance (20%) of rain returns to the far northern half of the
state as the upper level trough moves trough the region Monday.
This system will bring back fall like temperatures to the state
as high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 50s to
60s Monday/Tuesday. Low temperatures Tuesday could result in
frosty to freezing conditions across the western half of the
state. A more active pattern is favored in the extended as broad
troughing moves into the western half of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. North
to northwest winds will become light and variable tonight into
Friday morning. Winds will then become southerly for most TAF
sites through the day Friday, with light and variable winds
lingering in the KJMS area. Some breezy winds are possible in
the KXWA area. Light southerly winds are then expected for
Friday evening. Otherwise, look for mainly clear skies and dry
conditions through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Anglin