650
FXUS64 KBMX 030856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 751 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Isolated to scattered convection was present over Central Alabama
early this evening. The activity may produce a brief period of
gusty winds and will diminish within a few hours. After midnight,
southerly flow just off the surface will provide just enough lift
for low cloud and fog development. Therefore, many areas will
experience a cloudy and foggy early morning that will give way to
partly cloudy skies by late morning.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Central Alabama remains in a fairly moist and stagnant weather
pattern through the short term period. A surface ridge is
currently centered over the southwestern Atlantic with a weak
southerly flow present across the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with
westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Isentropic lift
during the overnight hours produced widespread low stratus clouds,
that are still hanging on as we approach midday for locations
along the I-20 corridor. In the meantime, isolated to scattered
showers with a few storms have developed this morning from
leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. As daytime heating
continues to increase through the afternoon, a few storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds as SBCAPE increases to 2500-3000
J/kg with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, especially across western and
southwestern portions of Central Alabama. Even though the storms
will be pulse-like in nature, Effective Bulk Shear around 20 knots
may keep updrafts going a little longer before they collapse. Due
to a lack of organized forcing, storms should remain below severe
limits, but wouldn`t rule out the issuance of some Special Weather
Statements with 40mph wind gusts later this afternoon.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight tonight as showers and
storms diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low
stratus clouds and fog development appears likely as ground
conditions remain fairly wet. Areas with the best chance for fog
will be across eastern and northeastern counties where clouds have
hung on the longest into the afternoon with less time for sunshine
to dry out the surface. We`ll need to monitor observation trends
through the evening for the potential of issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory during the overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog will mix out through Monday morning, giving way
to a very warm afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Only isolated
showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level
ridging sets up over the region. The next upper level shortwave
impulse to our west will pivot to the northeast, keeping most
organized showers and storms well to our northwest through Monday
evening. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A weak upper level low pressure system will slide into the
southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday as the more amplified
ridge remains across the the southwestern CONUS. This sets up a
northwesterly flow regime for Central AL. At least 2 weak shortwaves
will likely move through leading to increased rain and thunderstorm
chances; however, the timing and track of these shortwaves has shown
significant variability in model guidance each day. Initially, the
first wave on Wednesday seems to stay to our north for the most
part, but there`s some guidance that brings it further south, so
while I believe most of the area could see at least scattered
showers and storms on Wednesday, the better coverage and higher
confidence of showers and storms remains generally north of I-20.
Rain chances increase again Thursday into early Friday as a frontal
boundary pushes southward through the area. This boundary should be
south of our area during the day Friday leading to decreasing rain
chances and drier weather for at least the first part of the
weekend. However, guidance suggests another shortwave could slide
southeastward through the main trough again late Saturday through
Sunday leading to more showers and thunderstorms. Details on exact
timing of these waves will likely change in the coming days so the
forecast will most likely change.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

All sites are currently VFR as of now. The radar should be quiet
for the remainder of the night and into Monday morning. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR at least for all, with some
going to IFR/LIFR after 10z toward sunrise. Any patchy fog should
resolve itself ~ 13-15z. Cigs may last 1-2 hours longer. Some
scattered late afternoon diurnal convection is possible. Only
confident enough at this time to mention at MGM/TOI. Finally,
toward the end of the TAF, hires guidance is indicating a possible
convective complex to move into C AL Mon evening through the WNW
upper flow. At this time, I only have a mention in TCL 3-6z.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist today through at least
Thursday before a frontal boundary pushes into the region late in
the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today and tomorrow becoming more widespread across the
north on Wednesday. Generally light southerly flow expected
outside any thunderstorm activity through Tuesday.Patchy fog may
develop during the early morning hours where rain occurred the
previous day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  66  86  67 /  20  20  70  30
Anniston    86  68  86  68 /  20  20  70  30
Birmingham  87  70  87  71 /  30  20  70  30
Tuscaloosa  87  70  87  71 /  30  30  60  20
Calera      86  70  87  70 /  30  20  60  20
Auburn      85  69  86  70 /  30  20  50  20
Montgomery  86  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  10
Troy        86  69  89  69 /  30  20  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08