886
FXUS65 KBOI 230929
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
329 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...The center of an
upper level low is currently spinning over southern Idaho,
bringing wrap-around moisture into central Idaho and
northeast Oregon through the morning. Snow levels are around
4500 ft MSL and will rise this afternoon to 6000-6500 ft. As a
result, snow will fall as low as 4500 ft MSL for these areas
this morning, with only light additional accumulations expected.
The low will begin to exit toward the east by late morning,
allowing drier northwesterly flow to dominate the rest of
today. Breezy to windy surface winds will develop behind the
low through the afternoon, mainly for the western Snake Plain
and adjacent terrain. Temperatures will be slightly warmer today
than Wednesday, but will remain around 10 degrees below normal.

Dry conditions with near-seasonable temperatures will return for
Friday ahead of the next weak trough to arrive late Friday. A
chance of showers will begin Friday evening (20-40%) and spread
from west to east through Saturday (25-50%). A slight chance of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast in east Oregon
Friday, and into southwest Idaho on Saturday. Winds are expected
to increase on Saturday, with temperatures dropping 5-10
degrees below normal once again.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunny skies with above
normal high temperatures are anticipated across the region as a
dry, stable, zonal flow pattern temporary sets up. With this
abundance of unfettered insulation, high temperatures will rise
to around ten degrees above normal - mid 80`s in most places.
The Magic Valley and nearby southern mountainous areas can also
expect breezy west winds on Sunday with southern Harney County
seeing these same breezy conditions beginning late Tuesday -
both associated with tighter pressure gradients. The fair
weather conditions across the region will last until Wednesday
where a North Pacific trough will near and breach Eastern
Oregon, ushering in a more moist, unstable airmass. This new air
mass will begin to take control and affect the extreme northern
portions forecast area - setting up (for now) low probabilistic
chances (10-20%) for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered snow showers persisting over w-central ID
mountains through Thu/15Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR and mountain
obscuration in precip. Snow levels 4500-5000 ft MSL during
precip. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kt, except 10-20 kt with
gusts to 30 kt for KMUO/KJER/KTWF late morning through
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW-N 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low clouds clearing this afternoon. NW winds
generally 5-15 kt today, then SE 5-10 kt after sunset.

Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR. A chance (20-40%) of showers
beginning Friday eve in E Oregon. Increasing chance (25-50%) on
Saturday as system moves into SW Idaho. Potential for aftn/eve
thunderstorms both days. MVFR/IFR possible in precip, along with
mountain obscuration. Snow levels 6500-7500 ft MSL. Surface
winds E-SE 5-15 kt Friday, then W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to
25-30 kt Saturday. VFR Sunday with winds W-NW 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....WH
AVIATION.....SH