483
FXUS63 KDLH 262320
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonable warmth and dry conditions continue through the
  weekend.

- Change arrives Monday with a cold front that will usher in
  much cooler air along with a low chance (10-30%) for showers,
  mainly north.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures take over starting
  Tuesday with a chance for frost Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

High pressure stretched from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains
this afternoon with mainly clear skies across the region. Dry
and warm conditions are expected to prevail through the weekend
with highs remaining some 10-15 degrees above normal for late
September. A weak cold front will pass across the northern part
of the Northland tonight into Friday, but no precipitation is
expected with winds turning westerly for a period behind the
front.

Fall finally looks to arrive with a cold front on Monday into
Monday night. Most of the energy and QPF looks to remain north
of the International Border, but there is a low chance (10-30%)
for showers mainly along and north of the Iron Range. Any
rainfall will be light and most areas look to remain dry.

A much cooler airmass will push into the Upper Midwest behind
this cold front and bring highs in the 50s and 60s starting
Tuesday. This will be slightly below normal for early October.
Overnight lows will fall into the 30s and 40s with more
widespread 30s Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may
lead to areas of frost across parts of the region where lows
fall into the low to mid 30s. Otherwise, the dry trend looks to
continue with a lack of organized systems on the horizon heading
into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions with winds around 10 knots or less through the
period under high pressure. A low level jet will arrive along
the International Border tonight and lead to a period of LLWS at
INL during the early morning hours. The signal for fog tonight
is not as strong as previous nights. The best chance will be at
KHYR and KHIB, but confidence is low so just hinted at it for
now.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Winds tonight will remain under 10 knots and become
southwesterly during the early morning hours. Friday will see
winds remain southwesterly at 5 to 15 knots, highest in the
Grand Marais to Grand Portage area. High pressure then brings
variable winds for Friday night into Saturday with speeds under
10 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...BJH