Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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524 FXUS63 KEAX 291129 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 629 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGE... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday afternoon, with periodic chances persisting into early next week. Severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest has nosed into our area, with generally light easterly winds and mostly clear skies outside a band of clouds rooted at 10kft over central Missouri. A wide range of temperatures exist this morning, with upper 40s in northeast MO closer to high pressure to the upper 60s in urban core of Downtown Kansas City. The weather for today will continue to the pleasant and quiet theme with low humidity and high temperatures near normal in the middle to upper 70s. Cannot rule out an isolated shower sneaking across east central Kansas this afternoon, but the probability is very low (under 15%). Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and generally remain through the end of the forecast period. The environment will largely be characterized by modest instability and low deep layer shear, so severe weather is not expected at this time through the weekend. The primary upper trough by Thursday into the weekend will be displaced well to our northwest/north, with a subtropical jet over northern Mexico into Texas. In between these primary features, semi-zonal flow will persist over the Central Plains, with several embedded shortwave troughs moving across the region. While the specifics in timing in coverage and amounts become more uncertain later in the forecast period as model spread grows, there continues to be the trend of two primary precipitation windows; the first being late Thursday into early Friday and the second on Monday. As for temperatures, Friday looks to be the coolest day with signal for abundant cloud cover and lingering precipitation chances. Otherwise, look for readings to creep back to slightly above normal by Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period with some passing few to scattered mid to high level clouds. Winds should generally remain out of the east between 5 and 10 knots. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blair AVIATION...BMW