975
FXUS63 KFSD 270248
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
948 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected for quite some time. Ensemble
  output continues to suggest a less than 10 percent chance for
  a tenth of an inch or more in any 24 hour period through the
  first week of October.

- Above average high temperatures in the 80s are expected through
  the weekend.

- Increasing winds along with periods of near to above average
  temperatures could bring additional chances for fire danger
  throughout the duration of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The stronger southerly gradient will diminish through the night as a
weak front approaches from the west. With the wave well to the
north this front should stall and further weaken, leading to little
more than lighter winds for Friday. Model soundings do indicate a
brief period of near surface saturation, likely a result of the weak
winds and weak convergence along this front, but for now only
thinking very patchy fog mainly west of I-29. Lows will generally be
in the 50s with highs on Friday in the 80s.

Friday night into Saturday will see a ridge of high pressure in
place which will result in a very nice fall day. Morning lows will
be in the 50s and afternoon highs in the 80s with lighter winds and
low humidity.

Upper level ridging remains in place across the area on Sunday but
flattens a bit as a trough of low pressure moves into the Northern
Rockies. This will increase southerly flow a bit and could bring
some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon to central SD.
Once again highs will be in the 80s.

Still good agreement on a mainly dry front coming through Monday,
dropping temperatures a bit which should lead to below normal
temperatures on Tuesday. Highs will top out in the 70s to mid 80s
Monday, then begin falling through the afternoon as the strong cold
air advection moves in. Depending up dew points this should prove to
be another day with elevated fire weather concerns as fuels continue
to cure. Strong northwest flow aloft should bring warmer conditions
Wednesday with models suggesting that another cold front will drop
south through the area at the end of the period into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions persist across the
area along with light southerly winds. Besides a few upper-
level clouds moving in along a surface boundary, mostly clear
conditions should persist for the duration of the TAF period.
Otherwise, light southerly winds will become more northerly
behind the departing boundary to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Gumbs