Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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884 FXUS64 KFWD 251033 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 533 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Scattered thunderstorms continue to push southward this morning mainly across our eastern counties as a cold front slides south through the region. The wind shift associated with the frontal boundary has pushed through the Metroplex and is evident as a fine line on radar from near Comanche to Waxahachie. Cooler air is still back to the northwest a bit where temperatures are in the lower 60s closer to Wichita Falls. Some scattered showers still extend back to the northwest of the main line of convection from Comanche to Stephenville to McKinney. These should be short lived through the early morning hours and will tend to decrease in coverage as the front moves farther south. Morning clouds will linger for a few hours before scattering out leaving a mostly sunny afternoon with temperatures in the 80s. The only changes to the short term forecast were to update PoPs based on latest radar trends. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Thursday/ Regional radar imagery shows a broken line of thunderstorms just north of the Red River along a southward moving cold front. This front will continue to move south overnight with convection expected to increase in coverage as it approaches the I-20 corridor. A few of these storms could be severe with hail and gusty winds, but the bulk of the activity should remain sub- severe. We`ll maintain fairly high PoPs across the northeast half of the CWA through the overnight hours, although there will likely be a fairly sharp gradient in precipitation amounts from east to west. The cold front will continue southward through the early morning hours clearing our southern counties around midday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front will precipitation chances ending. Breezy north winds and temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected through the afternoon. Tonight will be clear and relatively cool with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s areawide as high pressure builds into North Texas. Northerly flow will persist into Thursday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/ No major changes to the extended forecast have occurred with the overnight update. Near normal temperatures will prevail through most of the period with a fairly quiet forecast in store for the next several days. Northerly surface winds will continue Friday with peak afternoon gusts near 25-30 mph, as what is currently TS Helene weakens and moves inland after its forecast landfall as a major hurricane in Florida. As this occurs Thursday night, Helene will interact with the upper level low situated just to our east, moving around the northern periphery of the upper low before it becomes absorbed into it`s stronger counterpart. Resultant moisture from the tropical system will wrap around this low and enter eastern North TX, allowing for low rain chances (20%) to return on Friday generally north and east of areas from Bonham to Sulphur Springs. The rest of the period will be rain-free with a slight warming trend set to take place over the weekend and into early next week. Near or slightly below normal high temperatures Friday in the low and mid 80s will warm into the mid and upper 80s, with a few locations hitting the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Looking just beyond the official forecast, a cold front looks to move through the Plains which should bring a slight cool down midweek, but the extent of which will likely change over the next several days. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move south along a cold front this morning and have ended across the Metroplex airports. Winds will remain a little chaotic in the wake of the storms, but a northerly direction will prevail in the next hour or so through the rest of the day. MVFR cigs have developed to the north of the front and are expanding in coverage based on satellite imagery. These low cigs will likely linger for a few hours this morning before scattering our prior to midday. Once the low cigs scatter later this morning, VFR will prevail through the remainder of the period with north winds around 15 kt this afternoon diminishing to around 5 kt tonight. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 63 84 63 83 / 10 0 0 5 5 Waco 82 61 84 59 85 / 20 0 0 0 5 Paris 82 58 82 59 79 / 20 0 0 5 20 Denton 84 59 84 59 85 / 5 0 0 5 5 McKinney 84 59 84 60 84 / 10 0 0 5 10 Dallas 83 63 85 63 85 / 10 0 0 5 5 Terrell 82 60 84 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 83 62 85 61 85 / 60 0 0 0 5 Temple 87 61 87 59 87 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 84 57 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$