Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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703 FXUS64 KFWD 232312 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 612 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Our welcomed early fall rain event is done for now but more rain is possible over the next few days. Most counties across the CWA saw measurable rainfall and some received totals in excess of 2 inches. We have just issued a Public Information Statement with rainfall totals for this event. Post-frontal clouds are finally beginning to scatter out late this afternoon and this trend will continue through the evening. Although today was much cooler than the weekend, the air behind the weak cold front is not much drier, so it still feels a bit warm and humid. The short term portion of the forecast is in good shape overall and the discussion below is still valid. We will make some cloud and wind adjustments based on current trends. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is expected through the afternoon. While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area. However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Over Tuesday evening, a digging shortwave disturbance will eject southward into Missouri from the main longwave trough to our east and eventually amplify into a cut-off low near the Ark-La-Tex by Wednesday morning. The movement of this upper low will allow additional showers and storms to initially form across North Texas, but eventually move south across the region midweek. Severe weather is not expected with any midweek activity. A short lull in precipitation is expected on Thursday as North and Central Texas become situated on the subsident back-side of the eastward- moving low. Temperatures over mid-late week will remain relatively seasonal, if not slightly-below normal as we get an influx of low-level CAA on the backside of the aforementioned low. Morning lows in the 50s/60s and afternoon highs in the 80s are expected each day through late week/early weekend. Low rain chances will return to our eastern North Texas counties on Friday as the cut-off low shifts back westward in response to the landfall and movement of PTC 9 late Thursday into Friday. As PTC 9 makes landfall in Florida, model guidance continues to show both lows moving in tandem around a shared center, with a slight westward retrograde of the larger cut-off low. The reason behind this "retrograde" is the potential for the Fujiwhara Effect to occur atop the SE CONUS. The Fujiwhara Effect is when two cyclones move close enough to each other that they begin to rotate around a shared center point. Eventually, PTC 9 will be snuffed out while the Ark-La-Tex cut-off low remains through the end of the week, keeping low rain chances present for our east and northeastern zones into Saturday morning. Eventually, the cut-off low will exit the region late next weekend and become enveloped within the flow of another NW-SE moving upper level trough. In response, mid-level ridging will build in across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by next Monday. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Overall, flying conditions will continue to improve this evening with few to scattered clouds between 2000 - 3000 ft and no additional storms expected. There is still potential for a few showers and storms south of I-20 overnight, just north of the front. Any storms that develop could cause some traffic impacts at the southern cornerposts as well as at the Waco terminal. However, coverage should be limited and any storms that do develop will weaken/dissipate shortly after sunrise. Locations south of the I-20 corridor will also have the best potential for MVFR stratus early Tuesday morning. One thing that the models have not been picking up on but could cause some brief issues Tuesday morning is the development of patchy fog due to a moist ground and light wind. We will leave it out of the forecast for now but will continue to monitor trends this evening/overnight. A west to northwest wind tonight will gradually become southwest to south on Tuesday at speeds at or below 8 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 88 68 84 64 / 10 5 40 10 0 Waco 68 87 66 86 62 / 30 30 30 20 0 Paris 63 87 63 83 60 / 5 0 40 10 5 Denton 61 89 64 85 60 / 5 5 40 10 5 McKinney 63 89 65 85 60 / 5 5 40 10 0 Dallas 67 89 68 86 63 / 10 10 40 10 0 Terrell 66 89 65 85 60 / 20 10 30 10 0 Corsicana 69 89 67 86 63 / 30 30 20 20 0 Temple 68 89 66 89 61 / 30 30 30 20 0 Mineral Wells 61 89 64 85 59 / 20 10 40 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$