533
FXUS63 KGLD 261936
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
136 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the upcoming weekend.

- Near to below average temperatures expected in the wake of a
  dry cold frontal passage early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A prolonged period of pleasant weather will persist. An omega
block.. the center (ridge) of which is situated over the
Rockies and High Plains.. will maintain a subsident synoptic
regime over the region. Expect clear skies, light winds and
above average temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Sun-Tue: Long range guidance continues to indicate a pattern
transition early next week -- a transition manifesting (to the
senses) in the form of a dry cold frontal passage on Monday.
The aforementioned cold front appears to be synoptically driven,
e.g. associated with a progressive upper trough in the main
belt of mid-latitude westerlies over Canada and the far northern
CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence is relatively high that a
cold frontal passage will occur in the lee of the northern and
central Rockies. Whether or not (and/or to what extent)
impactful fire weather may arise will highly depend upon
specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g. timing and
magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently assess at
this range. Regardless, a cooler airmass will be delivered to
the region sometime Mon-Mon night.. supplanting above-average
temperatures with near-average temperatures.

Wed-Fri: Long range guidance suggests a somewhat more active
(progressive/amplified) pattern may evolve by mid-late next
week.. as the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies descend from
on-high (Canada) to lesser latitudes (northern CONUS). In such a
pattern, sensible weather conditions.. temperatures and wind
speed/direction, in particular.. may vary considerably from day-
to-day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 942 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Expect S winds
at 12-16 knots this afternoon (gusting up to 25 knots at the
GLD terminal) -- decreasing to 7-11 knots at or around sunset
this evening. Winds may become variable early Friday morning
(~09-12Z).. as an inverted surface trough in Colorado shifts
eastward over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Winds
will shift to the north and increase to 10-15 knots near the end
of the TAF period (~15Z Friday).. as the aforementioned surface
trough shifts east of the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent