Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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620 FXUS64 KHGX 031130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 With low pressure developing east of the Rockies near the TX/OK panhandles, a 25-30 kt LLJ has developed just to our west and will gradually drift towards us through the morning. These elevated winds "should" inhibit dense fog development, and the added lift from the LLJ should also kick off some isolated showers by late morning. With daytime heating, we`ll see some of those showers blossom into isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. This is mainly expected to impact locations north of I-10 and east of I-45. PW values in this area will be approaching 2.0+" once again, so locally heavy rainfall continues to be possible. 00Z CAMs still depict a MCS moving northwest to southeast across some part of Texas on late Monday, but the exact timing and placement is still questionable. The Piney Woods has the best chances of being impacted by this, which is why portions of Houston/Trinity/Polk counties are under a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for today with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for areas north of Harris County (but not including it). Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall are the main hazards that will be associated with this line of storms (wherever it moves through). A marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 out of 4) is outlined for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. Daytime temperatures on Monday will top out mainly in the low 90s. Low temperatures for the next few nights will be fairly close to 80F for most, so we`ll be flirting with some more record high minimum temperatures. The forecast for Tuesday is a bit tricky as there looks to be another MCS push through on early Tuesday morning according to the latest run of the CAMs. If this happens, then we`ll be fairly stabilized the rest of the day and should remain dry. If not, then we could see the typical afternoon showers/storms develop with plenty of moisture still around to pair with lift from another LLJ and PVA. That`s a long-winded way of saying that the rainfall forecast for Tuesday is low confidence at the moment, but high-res guidance is currently trending towards the first scenario. 850mb temperatures will be a bit higher on Tuesday though with both the NAEFS and GEFS depicting 850mb temperatures being at their MAX percentiles. So, expecting hotter temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. When you combine that with the humidity, it`ll feel like it`s 105-110F. Our criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index values 108F, so some portions of Southeast TX may have one in place for Tuesday. On the positive side though, winds will be a bit gusty with sustained winds around 10-15 mph and gusting up to 20-25 mph...so at least there`ll be a good breeze! Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The main concern through the long term will be the return of the heat. A long fetch of southerly flow at the surface driven by a surface high pressure in the SE CONUS will help drive the temperatures and dew points up. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon heat indices rising to near 100 to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s for most inland locations with areas along the immediate coast not dropping below 80 degrees. Also because of the higher dew points along the coast, overnight heat indices may not drop below 90 degrees. Rain chances through the upcoming week will be fairly low. The chances are slightly higher Tuesday and Wednesday as we get some weak disturbances slide overhead combined with daytime heating, but even then not looking like anything impressive as of right now. Those low rain chances drop even lower as we head towards the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over Texas. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings this morning, but expect widespread VFR conditions to return by 16Z-18Z as southerly/southeasterly winds steadily increase. Expect wind speeds around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots throughout the day. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop later this morning into the afternoon mainly to the northeast of any of the TAF sites, but it`ll be a close enough call at UTS and CXO so VCTS has been added for them. Another period of MVFR ceilings is expected overnight areawide. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the middle of next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft may need to exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as wind gusts to near 20kt. There will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some storms may become strong to severe producing locally gusty winds and elevated seas. The persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip currents through the weekend. Fowler && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River at Normangee was forecast to crest in major flood stage on Sunday, but crested just below that in moderate flood stage. It`ll continue on a gradual recession, but may take a while to completely drop out of flood stage. The Trinity River at Riverside and at Moss Bluff will remain in minor flood stage until further notice. Lastly, the Trinity River at Liberty is right on the border between action stage and minor flood stage, but is forecast to rise into minor flood stage within the next day or two. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 77 95 78 / 20 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 91 78 94 79 / 30 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 81 89 81 / 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Fowler