636
FXUS64 KJAN 270646 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
146 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Overnight tonight and into the early morning hours we will start to
see rain chances begin to pick up across the northern reaches of the
CWA, along and north of Highway 82, starting around sunrise tomorrow
morning. These rain chances will continue to be reinforced and
progress southward by wrap around moisture making its way into the
region via Hurricane Helene`s western moisture channel being picked
up by a cut off low over western TN. It should be noted that there
will be no measurable impact for our forecast area from Hurricane
Helene with the exception of some peripheral moisture advection.
Cooler temperatures are continued to be projected tonight and
tomorrow morning with lows bottoming out right around 60 F for the
entire region. Circling back on the rain chances, tomorrow
morning: tomorrow , the tropical moisture associated with Helene
combined with the closed low over the Mid-South will introduce
mid-high rain chances (between 25-70%) mainly for northern zones
and progressing to I-20 by the evening. Most rain showers should
dissipate a couple of hours after sunset tomorrow./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow: Weather conditions will remain quiet
heading as global guidance continues to wrap drier air across our
forecast area while drifting south into northern Mississippi later
tonight. While this low continues to circulate over northern
Mississippi, it will help bring in some low end rain chances
(around 20%) associated with Helene south and into our northern
zones. Cloud cover should begin to gradually increase from the
north heading into the overnight period as the aforementioned
closed low remains over the Mid-South. Expect overnight lows to
drop into the low 60s across the area. Heading into Friday, the
tropical moisture associated with Helene combined with the closed
low over the Mid-South will introduce mid-high rain chances
(between 25-70%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20 by
Friday afternoon. With the closed low beginning to tighten across
the southeast CONUS along with a 5 to 7 mb pressure gradient,
areas into our northern zones could see sustained winds of 20-25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph. For this reason, we went ahead and
introduced a "Limited" threat for gradient winds for these areas.
This is supported decent HREF probabilities in excess of 50-70% of
greater than 35 mph.

Friday Night through Thursday: The gradient wind threat will
begin to diminish by Friday night as the remnants of Hurricane
Helene starts to slowly make its way east across the Tennessee
Valley. Heading into the weekend, the aforementioned low along the
leftover remnants of Helene, will start to slowly track northeast
towards the Northeast Atlantic. With the low migrating towards
the northeast, rain chances will begin to gradually decrease
across the north before coming to an end on Sunday. Heading into
Monday, an upper level ridge will begin to form over the
southwest. This will help bring quiet weather conditions along
with seasonal temperatures across the CWA through the mid- week.
Beyond the extended period, future global guidance is starting to
hint at a frontal boundary moving towards the southeast, bringing
drier/cooler air into the air. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period cntrl and south.
VFR conditions wl prevail in the north until 14Z when MVFR cigs wl
develop over the ne and gradually spread across the HWY 82
corridor TAF sites. A gusty nw wind 20-22kts wl develop across the
area by 14Z and continue through the aftn before subsiding by 23Z.
MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue in the north this evening. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  84  62  84 /  20   0   0   0
Meridian      62  83  61  84 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  85  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   64  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       64  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    62  81  62  83 /  40  10   0   0
Greenwood     62  79  61  82 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/CR/22