200
FXUS63 KJKL 272125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
525 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, drier air will eventually filter into eastern Kentucky
  behind an exiting cold frontal system. Generally cooler and less
  humid weather will then be in place over the next several days.

- Warmer and somewhat more humid weather will return by next
  weekend, with our next area-wide chance of showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 525 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

Looking forward to quiet, pleasant weather for this cycle of the
short term. Upper level low over the Great Lakes Region will keep
a mean trough in place aloft across the eastern CONUS. Weak short
wave disturbances will rotate around the southern periphery of the
mean trough, but there appears to be no significant impacts to
speak of over our forecast area through the short term. Drier,
cooler air will gradually filter into eastern Kentucky later
tonight and tomorrow behind an H850 trough, which is passing
through the region, currently entering our western most zones, or
just entering eastern Kentucky.

Sensible weather features seasonably cool afternoons and chilly
nights, especially in our sheltered, typically colder valley
locations. Northwest flow will tend to provide increasingly
clearer sky conditions with a west-northwest gradient wind.
Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s tonight and low to mid 50s
tomorrow night. While guidance keeps our temperature in the 50s,
it is possible some of our coldest valleys could slip into the
upper 40s tomorrow night. Afternoon highs will generally be in the
low to mid 70s tomorrow. No hazards to deal with during the short
term. However, the most recent runs of the hrrr do suggest a new
trend in the forecast for this evening in that there may be some
isolated shower development along the H850 trough this evening as
it passes west to east across the area. Will monitor for possible
updates to our PoPs as necessary.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

The models, and their ensemble suites, are in decent agreement
aloft through Thursday before they start to separate into the
weekend. They all depict upper level longwave troughing dominating
the eastern CONUS through most of the work week before ridging
spreads in with a return to troughing late. Multiple shortwave
troughs will rotate through the initial larger trough during this
time. A lead shortwave dives into the area and passes through on
Wednesday. This is followed by a secondary one moving by the area
further east - quicker in the ECMWF suite than the GFS and also
favoring the northeast compared to the lagging GFS. This will be
the biggest difference among the models through the period but
they do get back in line later Friday. By Friday, ridging will
move back over the area with significant height rises. However,
this does not last long as another trough starts to impinge the
Ohio Valley from the Southern Plains on Saturday - potentially
rolling into eastern Kentucky on Sunday - again quickest from the
ECMWF suite. Though it was evident, the model spread was not
sufficiently large to deviate too far from the blended multi-
model solution of the NBM.

Sensible weather will feature a cool down, and less humidity,
through the middle part of the week along with some shower and
thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon. High pressure then
brings drying and more sunshine to close out the week and start
the weekend, though the next system returns shower and storm
chances to the area later Saturday into Sunday.

The main adjustments to the forecast was to fine tune the
overnight temps and lows for terrain distinctions Wednesday night
through Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024

Expecting predominant VFR conditions through the period with CIGS
right around 030 AGL. Consequently, there will be an occasional
drop into high end MVFR conditions at TAF sites during the first
few hours of the forecast. Sustained winds will be out of the west
at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to around 20 kts through the
first 4-6 hours of the period and should slacken with sunset,
becoming light from the west-southwest. The more sheltered valley
locations will become variable. Winds will increase again for
Tuesday afternoon, out of the west-northwest. Drier air filtering
into the area through the overnight will tend to keep fog/mist at
a minimum.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY