Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
609 FXUS62 KKEY 231853 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 KBYX radar has shown isolated showers throughout the Keys for most of the day. Most of this activity has remained over the marine area moving to the west near 10 knots. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the mid 70s. Weak high pressure remains in place along the Eastern Seaboard with a developing area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, marine platforms are observing mainly east breezes near 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing near 10 mph. .FORECAST... Upper level ridging coinciding with surface high pressure will continue to dominate through the evening hours. Therefore, have maintained the slight chance PoPs through this evening increasing to chances (~40%) after midnight through Tuesday as moisture starts to increase. The pressure gradient will also start to increase across the region resulting in breezes gradually strengthening over the next few forecast periods. The remainder of the forecast period from Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend will hinge on what happens in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center has begun to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as of 11 am EDT this morning. Whatever becomes of this system in the Caribbean, it is expected to make its closest pass to the Keys Wednesday evening into early Thursday which is when we expect the worst conditions from the storm to occur. While the core of the storm is expected to remain well west of the Keys, the storms wind field is expected to be rather large resulting in far reaching impacts well away from the center. Breezes will pick up in earnest starting Tuesday night and Wednesday throughout the Keys peaking Wednesday night and Thursday which is when we expect any potential Tropical Storm conditions to occur. Regarding rainfall, the heaviest rainfall looks like it will occur during the Wednesday through Thursday time frame with locally heavy rainfall possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the Keys in a marginal risk for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Friday with a slight risk for Thursday. In combination with the rainfall and strong SE flow, this may act to further aggravate the already running higher than normal tides. On the back end of the system as it pulls away, we expect their to be a "tail" of the system which may unfortunately stall across the Keys prolonging the wet period. Stay tuned to the latest forecast and continue to check back for the latest. Residents and visitors in the Keys should continue to check back for the latest forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service office in Key West through the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon will steadily increase tonight and Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the forecast will depend on the development and movement of this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east to southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, with strong southeast winds peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the tropical system moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected over western sections of the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next few days. .COASTAL FLOOD... A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all of the Keys island chain, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While a shower cannot be ruled out at either terminal, high uncertainty in exact timing and location of rain will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the east at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1931, the daily record rainfall of 2.10" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 81 87 / 40 50 80 90 Marathon 82 90 81 87 / 40 50 80 90 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest