Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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902 FXUS64 KLCH 240450 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Presently there is a broad upper ridge over the GoM / Gulf Coast States, a trough taking shape across the Central to Southern Plains, and a cold front curved from S MO through Ctrl TX. Over the next 24H, we will see the upper ridge shoot off to the Atlantic coast of FL as what is now PTC#9 moves north into the GoM and the front descends further south. As a result, we will see PoPs begin to increase. Currently, neither severe weather or flooding is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 We start off this period with a slightly cooler and drier post frontal airmass moving into the forecast area. However that is just in comparison to what we have been experiencing, as what we are forecasting (MaxTs ~80s, MinTs ~60s) is climatologically near normal for that time frame. Conditions in the latter half of the long term will be highly dependent on PTC#9 as it moves inland from the NE GoM and another system set to move south into the area. As we get into the mid to later part of the work week, an upper low will cut off and center itself about the Central Plains before sinking further south. There is still a bit of disagreement amongst the models as to how the cutoff low and what is now PTC#9 will interact, especially with different models depicting different strengthens. Regardless of that, moisture return and an uptick in temperatures are likely near the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Amended KAEX earlier for convection developing in the area...have continued to carry VCSH there for the next couple hours before activity diminishes. Thereafter, brought afternoon convection to all the terminals except KLFT/KARA per recent guidance as a sfc boundary approaches, but stalls. Otherwise, no changes to previous TAF thinking. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light with a general onshore component today through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 which is expected to become a major hurricane in the next few days. Winds and seas late Wednesday through the end of the week will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of this disturbance, but are likely to increase through the latter half of the week. It is possible that we will need Small Craft Advisories for the eastern and 20-60nm zones mid this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 90 67 85 / 20 40 40 30 LCH 74 90 72 88 / 10 30 20 30 LFT 74 92 74 89 / 0 20 20 30 BPT 74 91 72 91 / 0 40 30 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...25