Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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888 FXUS64 KLCH 270409 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1109 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Very nice weather ongoing across the area this afternoon as drier air continues to spread southward in the wake of an overnight cold front. Northerly winds have been somewhat gusty amid a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas and what is now Major Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Under sunny to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s across the region. Dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50s to lower 60s (between 10 and 20 degrees lower than this time yesterday), yielding relative humidity values generally between 35 and 45 percent. The primary message for the upcoming forecast period will be the continuation of dry and seasonable conditions for the next several days. Strong and gusty offshore winds over the coastal waters will gradually subside by Friday. Meanwhile, much bigger weather concerns loom for portions of FL and the SE US as Hurricane Helene quickly moves in a general northward direction over the eastern Gulf. The storm is expected to intensify further before making landfall near the Big Bend Region of FL sometime this evening. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The region will remain under the influence of drier air tonight into Friday, with northerly flow reinforced along the western flank of Helene as it moves across the FL Big Bend later this evening. Winds will shift more northwest then west through Friday morning as the system quickly lifts inland. The remnants of Helene are then expected to arc northwest toward the mid MS Valley during the day Friday, and this could bring a slight increase in midlevel clouds across central and western LA as moisture wraps around the SW side of the circulation. These clouds will eventually erode by Friday night as dry air mixes back over the region while the remnant low meanders near the confluence of the OH/MS river basins. Temperatures through the short term period will remain close to seasonal values, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with temperatures falling into the lower 60s across much of the area. Friday night low temps are expected to be in the low to middle 60s, which is right in line with late September normals. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The large low will slowly drift over the OH Valley through the weekend, finally lifting northeastward early next week. This will allow for the passage of a weak cold front by midweek, with reinforcing high pressure building into the region by Wednesday and Thursday. Aloft, ridging is expected to build into the region from the west, with dry air and capping keeping rain chances limited through the long term. No significant change in temperatures is anticipated over the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will climb slightly, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and lows into the middle to upper 60s. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions and generally north winds anticipated through the period. Winds will become gusty again during Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Strong gradient winds between high pressure across the central US and Major Hurricane Helene will maintain strong and gusty winds over the coastal waters tonight. Winds will gradually taper off through Friday morning, shifting more westerly as Helene quickly moves inland over the southeast US. A light to moderate westerly flow will continue through the weekend. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 59 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 63 86 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 63 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ452-455. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...05