812
FXUS63 KLMK 010727
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
327 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Rain and storm chances return this weekend and continue
    into next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a
    steady increase into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A shortwave trough axis will slowly move from the mid Mississippi
River Valley through our region today and tonight. Ahead of this
feature, we do see an uptick in low level jetting to around 30-35
knots or so which will aid in PWAT values surging toward 1.75" or so
later today. Some weak isentropic lift may also be present in
addition to some very meager elevated instability (250 J/KG or less
of MU CAPE). Overall, this should result in widespread light rain
overspreading the area later this morning into the afternoon. Could
see a few pockets of moderate rain as well as a few embedded rumbles
of thunder. Overall, expecting around .33" to .5" for most, with
some localized areas closer to .75" possible.

Trough axis is slow to move through, so will keeping lingering pops
in tonight. May see some fog develop across our NW toward dawn on
Sunday.

Should be a notable temp gradient from W to E today. Expecting
mostly low to mid 70s along and west of I-65. Meanwhile, areas
farther east should be more in the mid to upper 70s given a bit more
time to "heat" up before precipitation onset. Smaller diurnal range
into tonight, given the heavy cloud cover. As a result, only
expecting to drop into the low and mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Sunday - Sunday Night

Shower chances will linger Sunday morning and possibly into the
afternoon as the weak mid-level wave and associated sfc low scoots
off to our northeast. Low level ridge will be eroding the moisture
transport throughout the day, but still expect a warm and muggy
airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s and temperatures peaking near
80. Along with the warm airmass, some breaks in the clouds during
the afternoon would amplify the possibility of realizing marginal
instability, especially across south-central Kentucky. There won`t
be much forcing left by then, but perhaps some pulse storms could
pop up in the afternoon hours, leading to some localized downpours.

Eventually a drier airmass will arrive by Sunday night, leading to a
brief period with no precip mention in the forecast. Dry weather
will continue into Monday morning. Normal temperatures expected
overnight, with readings in the low and mid-60s.


Monday - Wednesday

A summer-like pattern will take over for the first half of next
week, with daily shower and storm chances as a parade of weak waves
provide forcing in a warm and humid environment. If there`s any
chance for a day to be drier than the others, it will be Monday. Low-
level ridging will help keep dry conditions for most of Monday,
especially for areas east of I-65. WAA regime will set up Monday to
be the warmest day of the long term period, with afternoon highs
peaking in the mid- and upper-80s.

Confidence on timing and coverage of each wave of precip and storm
chances remains low. Both Monday and Tuesday afternoon will pose the
risk for pulse-type thunderstorm development in an unstable
environment with steep low level lapse rates. Wednesday brings our
highest PoPs of the week as a cold front sweeps through the region.
This frontal boundary will provide better forcing for showers and
storms, with the potential for some strong to severe storms not out
of the question either.


Thursday - Weekend

Very low confidence in weather elements during the
period as model uncertainty increases substantially. All in all,
forecast indicates slow lowering trend in rain chances towards the
weekend with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Things are quiet across the TAF sites at this hour, with light right
still off to the SW of BWG HNB. Seeing some high clouds and light
ESE to SE winds early this morning, before lower ceilings and
widespread rainfall move into our SW later this morning. Showers and
a few thunderstorms then overspread the rest of the area through the
day. Handled any Thunderstorm chances with Prob30 groups, but did
prevail the rainfall as it is expected to be widespread.

Surface winds veer to the S and strengthen around sunrise, and then
gust up around 20-25 mph by late morning/midday through the
afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower to at least low MVFR with
the widespread rainfall, and then linger around the low MVFR/IFR
threshold toward the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS