Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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326 ACUS11 KWNS 242011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242011 MNZ000-NDZ000-242145- Mesoscale Discussion 0934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into far western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242011Z - 242145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of landspout tornadoes may occur with the stronger, longer lasting cells. The severe threat should be brief and isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A surface low, located along the ND/MN border, continues to track northeast, immediately preceded by a band of convection, where at least one tornado has already been reported. These storms are forming within a confluence zone characterized by locally high amounts of low-level vertical oriented vorticity and over 200 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. This setup may promote stretching of vorticity by any relatively discrete, sustained updraft within the convective band that can form, supporting continued landspout tornado potential. However, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 46219631 46759700 47249758 47669743 47729668 47319626 46849609 46389604 46219631