Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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295 FXUS64 KMEG 240424 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the Mid- South as of 9PM. Luckily, the severe weather threat never materialized this evening due to lack luster lapse rates and a small capping inversion. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible overnight before a secondary round of showers and storms develops along a cold front midday Tuesday. A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains in place for areas near the Tennessee River on Tuesday. However, the latest 00Z guidance suggests that the most conducive environment for severe storms will remain over middle Tennessee and northern Alabama, limiting local impacts. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track and does not need additional updates. ANS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 This week is expected to start off warm and rainy, with highs in the 80s and 90s alongside scattered thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s and afternoon thunderstorms in the portions of northeast Mississippi and the Tennessee river valley. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s through the rest of the week with steadily increasing rain chances through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A positively tilted trough is currently progressing across the CONUS and into our region. A surface cold front is currently draped N/S across TX through AR into MO with a weak surface low analyzed in C MO. As the day progresses, these features will slowly move east with attendant showers and thunderstorms. Some sunshine today has allowed for at least marginal destabilization, as evident with several convective showers developing throughout the CWA. No significant impacts are expected with only small hail and damaging winds being the primary impacts through this evening. Tomorrow will see the passage of the surface cold front, which will make its way into E MS by 00z Wed. More chances for thunderstorms are possible, but impacts will once again only be up to marginally severe for hail and damaging winds. From this point, a new shortwave dives south out of the northern stream and phases with today`s wave. The result is an amplifying cutoff low that is likely to remain over the Central CONUS for the foreseeable future, bringing more unsettled weather. The only complicating factor in this forecast is the expected arrival of what is anticipated to be Helene on Thursday. As a result more rain is in the forecast. The current QPF forecast displays 2-3" between now and Saturday with more being entirely possible based on Helene`s trajectory. However, specific details are difficult to nail down at this range and will likely change in the coming days. Late into the forecast period has a reasonable amount forecast confidence in terms of expected conditions. Given the presence of a distinct cutoff low and the addition of a post tropical system, dreary and wet conditions will likely prevail through the rest of the period. However, as previously mentioned, forecast spread on specific rainfall amounts and impacts are yet to be determined and will likely be amended as we continue through the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Cold front will push through the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers possible with the potential for elevated TS remaining low overnight. HREF guidance continues to indicate the potential for MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning then improving to VFR conditions for Tuesday afternoon. Best potential for TS will be at TUP Tuesday afternoon. Light winds will increase to W winds between 7-10 kts on Wednesday, then becoming light NNW winds Tuesday evening. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC