Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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408 FXUS64 KMEG 270803 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 303 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected for Memorial Day. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few afternoon pop up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Dry conditions will persist for much of the area through the week, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Convection from an advancing cold front is confined to north Mississippi as of 3 AM. Latest mesoanalysis still indicates a moist and unstable air mass to keep convection going. Environmentally in this convective area includes MLCAPE values across north Mississippi are 2000-2500 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km, and 50-60 kts of effective shear. The slow moving cold front is currently just west of the Mississippi River. Convective and severe weather should come to an end this morning around 7 AM. After the line of storms pushes out of the Mid-South, Memorial Day should be pleasant. A few diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible, but mostly dry conditions are expected. High pressure will slowly slide in to encompass the region and dewpoints/humidity values will slowly decline. A ~1020mb high will encompass the region by Tuesday morning and will slowly be pushed out by our next chance of widespread rain late week. A low pressure system from the Baja region may clip southeast Arkansas and into the Mississippi Delta region on Wednesday, but nothing severe is currently expected. QPF for that area is generally an inch or less for Wednesday. Diurnally driven, pop-up thunderstorms are possible each day as temperatures will return to near normal as May comes to a close. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Thunderstorms will be moving across much of the Mid-South overnight. Behind the main line of thunderstorms, calmer weather with VFR conditions and light west winds are expected on Monday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...ARS