Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
480 FXUS63 KOAX 231921 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry conditions through Thursday. - Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 After a weekend of active weather, the forecast quiets a bit for the work week. The last of the sprinkles and showers have come to an end as the mid-level trof slides east. Surface analysis reveals a high pressure axis draped directly across the Corn Belt stretching from the panhandle of Texas to the arrowhead of Minnesota. With light winds and clear skies over northeast Nebraska this morning, a few stations slipped into the 30s for the first time this season. Under the sunshine, temperatures are peaking near 70. Near record highs Friday and Saturday are a thing of the past. Over the past 30 years, only one of five years managed 90F on October 1st or later. WV analysis reveals the mid-level shortwave pushing northeast into Iowa this afternoon with weak ridging over the Gulf Coast. Pacific and Atlantic coasts are each being influenced by upper-level lows. .TONIGHT and TUESDAY... Tonight`s temps may be considered cool, especially after the warm weekend, but they`ll be warmer for much of the forecast area thanks in part to veering winds that become westerly overnight. Expect lows near 50 for most. A mid-level shortwave diving southeast drags a cold front through the CWA over the course of Tuesday with NW wind gusts of 15-25 mph. Cold air advection will be weak to moderate and the system will have very little moisture to work with. Still, have maintained 20-30% PoPs near the front as it dives southeast. Generally, expect only nuisance showers / sprinkles with none to scant QPF of a hundredth or so. We`ll be squinting at the bottom of the rain gauge at OAX. .LONG TERM FORECAST... As the shortwave deepens into a low, cuts off, and pushes southeast, it will be interesting to watch as it interacts with the tropical cyclone forecast to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and push through the Gulf of Mexico. We could see some interesting Fujiwhara effects as the lows spin around each other. Diverging guidance leaves this forecaster uncertain on precip chances by the end of this week. We may see some backside precipitation Saturday or Sunday as the now combined low pressure system meanders north. Until then, expecting seasonal temperatures and a dry forecast. As fuels continue to dry, fire concerns will grow. NWS Omaha is in regular contact with fire program managers across the area to get a handle on latest conditions. Red flag warnings will be issued when wind and humidity criteria are met. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Winds will be the primary concern over the next 24 hours as the weak southerly winds will become westerly overnight and eventually breezy and out of the northwest on Tuesday. A cold front brings the wind change from northwest to southeast and may bring some isolated showers to each TAF site, but confidence is low with chances hanging around 25%. If showers do find their way to the aerodrome, they`ll be light with little lightning or thunder. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen