412
FXUS61 KOKX 260634
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
234 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Northeast continues to weaken and
slowly giving way to a frontal system that will move across the
area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will then
gradually build in from the north on Friday and remain across
the region Friday night through Monday as weakening low pressure
tracks to the south. Another frontal system approaches Tuesday
with a cold front passing through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The area is currently dry as earlier light showers have exited.
Based on current radar and latest CAMs, have backed up the
timing of future showers.

A warm front approaches from the west and may enter the western
zones by daybreak. Best thermal forcing/higher chances of
showers will be north and west of NYC. Models show elevated
instability moving in late at night, but thinking is that lift
will be too weak for a mention of thunder. Low temperatures
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The warm front lifts across the forecast area during Thursday
with a trailing cold front slowly passing through on Thursday
night. The highest chances of showers during the daytime remain
north and west where the stronger upward forcing will be.
Chances then increase for the rest of the region at night as the
cold front shifts through. Have left in a slight chance of
thunder during the daytime and evening with increased
instability. Still some uncertainty regarding how far south and
east the likelihood of showers and potentially brief heavy
downpours reach as instability wanes along the slow- moving cold
front. With that said, no concerns for severe thunderstorms or
flooding for this event. Some post-frontal showers are possible
Friday morning across the southern zones, otherwise dry but
mostly cloudy conditions. Clouds may however thin out to partial
sunshine for the northern zones. NBM looked good for
temperatures through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper ridge along the east coast will remain in place Friday
night into the beginning of next week as a closed low remain
offshore of the northeast coast, and another weakening closed
low continues to meander across the lower Mississippi Valley.
This low gradually weakens into an open trough Monday.
Meanwhile, at the surface high pressure builds into the
northeast Friday night into Saturday and remains into the
beginning of next week. With low pressure meandering to the
south this is a chance of precipitation mainly across the
southwestern areas Friday night into Saturday night. Then with
the high pressure nosing into the region dry weather is expected
Sunday and Monday. However, there is uncertainty with the
strength of the high and where the low tracks, and Friday night
into Saturday may end up dry, and Sunday and Monday may be wet.
By Monday night the southern low is really weak or dissipated,
and any remnants will be picked up by another northern stream
frontal system moving to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, with
the systems cold front, at this time, expected to pass through
the region Wednesday.

Temperatures will be generally seasonable through the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Northeast coast will continue to weaken
and give way to an approaching frontal system over the eastern
Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a warm front across
the area this afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage at
night.

Expect a mainly MVFR forecast for the terminals for Thursday
with KSWF being the one possible exception. It will be likely
be right on the cusp of MVFR/IFR. Brief IFR conditions are also
possible this morning for the NYC and KHPN terminals. As the
cold front drops slowly south across the area tonight, a period
of IFR seems likely for all terminals. Showers will develop and
work up from the SW later this morning, along and ahead of the
warm front. The best chance will be to the north and west of the
NYC terminals, although showers will be in close proximity through
the day. A thunderstorm at this time is only mentioned at KSWF.
Confidence is too low to mention elsewhere. There will also be
a chance of showers with the cold front tonight.

ESE winds less 10kt or less will veer to the south later this
morning into this afternoon, eventually becoming SSW later this
afternoon. As the cold front settles south across the area
winds are likely to go light and variable for a time before
becoming light northerly. Southerly gusts 15-20kt possible for
the NYC and eastern terminals during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments likely for changing flight categories due to
timing of cigs and presence of -SHRA through TAF period.

Brief IFR is possible before 12Z.

Brief window of VFR is possible late afternoon at KJFK, LGA and
KEWR.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: MVFR or lower in the early AM with low stratus,
becoming VFR by late morning.

Saturday: Possible MVFR in slight chance of -SHRA

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time. Only minor changes to
chances for showers early this evening.

Long period easterly swells from a slowly departing offshore
low will to continue to produce advisory- level waves on the
ocean through tonight. While 5 ft waves are still possible
mainly in the morning on Thursday, do not have enough confidence
that they would occur across enough of any one particular zone
to extend the SCA into Thursday. Waves otherwise prevail just
below advisory thresholds on the ocean through Friday with gusts
below 25 kt on all waters. Winds and seas across the forecast
waters remain below advisory levels Friday night through Monday
night as high pressure remains in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk for the development of rip currents continues through
Thursday due to continued long period easterly swells.
Swells begin to slowly diminish Friday and Saturday. The rip current
risk is expected to also diminish to moderate for Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...