672
FXZS60 NSTU 280035
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
135 PM SST Mon May 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Hourly observations throughout the day reported partly cloudy
skies with brief passing showers across the territory. Also
observed over the area are high temperatures reaching 90 degrees.
However, on the latest satellite imageries, a trough to the south
and west looks to be migrating closer to the islands with severed
parts of the trough moving over the territory. These parts of the
trough will likely bring scattered to numerous showers for tonight
only. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (28/00Z)
shows a conditionally stable atmosphere. Given the latest RAOB
data and the close proximity of the trough, the potential for
convections to build and prevail over the islands remains high.
Model data on the other hand shows the aforementioned trough being
pushed by a broad and strong high pressure system to the south-
southwest as it migrates eastward throughout the week. This same
high pressure system will produce fresh trades potentially
increasing to gale force winds by Friday.

By Tuesday night through the end of the forecast period, the
trough will have remained over the territory and produce numerous
to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Thus, expect
scattered showers with gentle to moderate easterlies for tonight
through midweek, increasing to numerous showers and fresh trades
by Thursday. Winds are expected to reach wind advisory thresholds
with an incrase potential for flash flooding conditions by the
end of the week.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet continues to linger in the area
through tonight. However, model data shows the aforementioned
high pressure system generating a large swell from the south,
building to advisory thresholds by Tuesday night through the
rest of the forecast period. Swells with a far fetched area
(long periods) will likely produce higher surfs and strong rip
currents closer to shore. Additionally, trade winds are expected
to gradually increase to near gale strengths by Thursday night
into the weekend. These winds will also enhance seas and surfs
even further. Therefore, expect rough seas to remain over the area
for the majority of the week starting Tuesday night.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen