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AGUS76 KRSA 301335
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
640 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND SRN OR MON AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
PACNW...
...RISING TEMPS EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK AT 10 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (THU AM - WED AM)...

The upper trough from yesterday continues to move further inland to
our north today as a ridge builds in over the eastern Pacific. This
will result in dry conditions and warming temperatures for the rest
of the week as the ridge passes over the west coast. Expecting
afternoon highs away from the coast to rise to 5 to 15 deg F above
seasonal normals. Another trough is then set to arrive this weekend
cooling down coastal areas to below normal, but relatively high
heights will keep interior CA and NV 5 to 10 deg F or so above
normal through Sunday. A larger upper low will then move into the
Gulf of Alaska at the end of the weekend sending a front and towards
the PacNW. The southern edge of this system will move through the
nrn CA/OR border on Monday. The combination of the front and upper
low is expected to produce some precip over the north coast and srn
OR. There is still some uncertainty on precip amounts for Monday.
Ensembles have 24 hr QPF ending Tuesday ranging from 0.10" to nearly
1.25" between the GFS and ECMWF. Some of this will depend on the N/S
positioning of the upper low and how far along the BC coast it
travels before moving inland through the PacNW. QPF was mainly the
morning WPC guidance. Highest amounts forecast over the Smith Basin
at 0.50-0.75" or so and the crest of the Cascades at 0.25-0.60".

Conditions will dry out again after Monday once the trough moves
inland and higher heights begin to build into CA and the rest of the
west. Strong ridging is expected by mid-week leading to some well
above normal afternoon high temperatures (10-20 deg F).


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

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