687
FXUS64 KSHV 240913
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
413 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Active weather will continue through the next 18-24 hours before
a lull returns across the Four State Region. This is due to
troughing along a meandering frontal boundary with weak shortwaves
in quasi-zonal flow aloft all acting to instigate rounds of
convection across the Southern Great Plains into the Ark-La-Tex.
High-resolution guidance/CAMs suggest the next round of convection
developing ahead of the frontal boundary as it shifts southward
across north-central Texas, with developing thunderstorms shifting
further southeast of the I-20 corridor after sunset Friday and
continuing overnight. Compressional heating (especially where
storms don`t form) will also keep temperature maximums/minimums
above average, reaching the upper 80s/low 90s and low-to-mid 70s,
respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Somewhat of a respite from active weather will arrive across the
Four State Region going into next week. This is due to frontal
passage expected by early next week coinciding with generally
overrunning shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow transitioning to
northwesterly flow as ridging builds in further north across
Texas. This will not preclude parts of the area from just about
daily chances of afternoon convection, and about 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall according to the latest WPC QPF. Temperature
maximums/minimums will respond in-kind with upper 80s/upper 60s
lower 70s, respectively (and back to near normal for this time of
the year). /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

South winds 10 to 15 knots to persist through the terminal
forecast period ending 25/06Z. Low-level moisture will bring MVFR
ceilings to the region from 25/09Z through 25/15Z with ceilings
lifting to VFR thereafter. Otherwise, VCTS conditions expected
after 25/02Z across TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD terminals with tempo TSRA
conditions expected across TYR/TXK/ELD after 25/04Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  74  93  76 /  10  30   0   0
MLU  92  71  92  74 /  10  20  10   0
DEQ  86  67  87  71 /  10  40  10  10
TXK  90  71  91  73 /  10  40  10  10
ELD  90  69  90  71 /  20  40  10   0
TYR  91  72  92  75 /  10  30   0   0
GGG  92  71  92  74 /  10  30   0   0
LFK  94  73  95  75 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05