Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
392 FXUS65 KSLC 270939 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 339 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep conditions warmer than normal and largely dry into next week. Temperatures will peak through the weekend. A dry cold front will track into southwest Wyoming and northern Utah Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...High pressure positioned near the Arizona and New Mexico border will expand northward Friday into the weekend. That will bring warmer and dry conditions. High temperatures Friday will range from roughly 10-15F warmer than normal. While high temperatures will be in record territory Friday, confidence is higher in record warmth Saturday as the ridge builds and a weak closed low tracks inland from the eastern Pacific, bringing an enhanced, dry southwest flow. That will bring an increase in fire danger, primarily to southwest Utah, but winds will likely not be strong enough for Red Flag Warnings. Forecast highs throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah generally range from 3F below that location`s record to 5F above for Saturday. From north to south at Logan, Salt Lake City, Milford, Cedar City, and St. George, National Blend of Models (NBM) probability of exceedance for record highs is at or exceeding 50% for each location. The highest probabilities throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah are around 95%. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A weakening upper level low will shift eastward into southern California by Sunday morning. Associated with this upper level low, a few thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Utah mountains Sunday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough will cross the northern tier of the western US Sunday into Monday, bringing a weak, dry cold front into Utah by later Monday. This will cool maximum temperatures across northern and central Utah around 5-10 degrees, falling to below records. Southern Utah will see far less cooling, only around 1-4 degrees or so. The northern stream will stay active, bringing another dry cold front through the state later Wednesday into Thursday, again cooling temperatures around 5 degrees or so. In summary, temperatures will remain above normal levels through the end of the long term forecast period, with precipitation remaining well below normal levels. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Clear conditions will last through the day with light southeast winds transitioning to light northwest winds around 18Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered clouds will build primarily around terrain in southern Utah around 18Z, with clear conditions elsewhere. Relatively light winds will last through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER...An expansive ridge will amplify Friday, bringing warmer conditions to Utah. This will result in lower minimum relative humidity values that will generally be in the teens. Winds will stay relatively light through Friday. A closed low in the eastern Pacific will track inland Saturday, setting up enhanced southwest winds, primarily throughout southwest Utah, where gusts will exceed 25 mph. Gusty winds will combine with low relative humidity to increase fire danger, although Red Flag Warning criteria will not likely be met. Similar conditions will last through the weekend as the trough tracks slightly east. That will bring increased southwest winds to northern Utah, with gusts exceeding 25 mph. A dry cold front Sunday into Monday will bring temperatures around 5-10F cooler throughout the north. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wilson LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Wilson FIRE WEATHER...Wilson For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity