936
FXUS62 KTBW 270015
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Major Hurricane Helene is 125 miles west southwest of Cedar Key, now
as a Category 4 Hurricane. Helene continues to strengthen and
increase in forward speed as it nears landfall in the Big Bend
region late tonight. Continued widespread impacts are expected
through Friday morning.

* Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is occurring. Potential
  peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to
  Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka,
  5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7
  feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet
  from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Elevated water levels will remain
  possible through Friday.

* Flooding Rain - Flooding rain threat will continue through this
  weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches and locally higher
  amounts up to 10 inches. Even after Helene pulls away, additional
  rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend.

* Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds are occurring
  and will continue tonight with the highest probabilities along
  the coast.

* Tornadoes - A tornado watch is in effect. Several tornadoes are
  possible tonight.

The only adjustment for the evening update was to update the POPs to
account for the latest  trends and CAM guidance. The forecast has
remained incredibly consistent and remains on track. Stay safe
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

MVFR/occasional IFR conditions will continue tonight as rainbands
move across the region. Conditions will begin to improve late
tonight and Friday morning as Helene moves further north away from
the area. Gusty south winds at 25 to 35 knots will decrease to 15 to
25 knots and shift to southwest later tonight, then diminish to
around 15 knots Friday morning. Wind gusts will remain between 40
and 55 knots this evening in the stronger rainbands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Dangerous and life threatening boating conditions will
continue for our waterways today as Hurricane Helene continues to
push through the Gulf of Mexico. Currently we have tropical storm
and hurricane warning throughout our zones. Helene will push into
the Big Bend area tonight. After that winds will stay out of the
southwest but we will still see dangerous boating conditions
through the morning hours before winds slowly subside throughout
the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain south to
southwest through the weekend and Monday with speed between 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  89  79  88 / 100  10  20  40
FMY  78  88  79  90 /  80  50  70  70
GIF  78  89  77  91 /  90  20  30  60
SRQ  81  89  79  89 /  90  20  30  50
BKV  78  89  74  89 / 100  10  10  40
SPG  81  88  82  89 / 100  10  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Flannery
AVIATION...Close
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...Shiveley